Za podregiju jugoistočne Evrope koju uz Hrvatsku čine i dve članice EU, Bugarska i Rumunija, MMF prognozira negativne stope rasta za ovu i iduću godinu


Hrvatska će ove godine zabeležiti pad bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) od 5,2 odsto, dok će u 2010. BDP porasti 0,4 odsto, prognozira Međunarodni monetarni fond (MMF) u jesenjim Prognozama za svetsku privredu (WEO), a uoči sastanka sa Svetskom bankom u Istanbulu.

U aprilskim prognozama MMF je predvideo pad hrvatskog BDP-a za 3,5 odsto u ovoj godini, i njegov rast za 0,3 odsto u 2010, podsećaju hrvatski poslovni sajtovi.

Godišnja stopa inflacije u Hrvatskoj merena potrošačkim cenama u 2009. iznosiće 2,8 odsto, a na tom nivou bi trebalo da se zadrži i u 2010, navodi dalje MMF u sklopu prognoza objavljenih na svojoj internet stranici.

Bugarsku i Rumuniju će ove godine pogoditi izrazitiji pad privrednih aktivnosti, od 6,5 odsto odnosno 8,5 odsto. Ni 2010. godina Bugarskoj neće doneti oporavak, s obzirom na prognozu daljeg pada aktivnosti od 2,5 odsto, dok se u Rumuniji očekuje skroman rast od 0,5 odsto.

Za svetsku privredu MMF u 2009. predvidja pad aktivnosti od 1,1 odsto, posle čega bi u 2010. trebao da usledi oporavak aktivnosti, uz stopu rasta od 3,1 odsto.

Jesenje Svetske privredne prognoze objavljene su uoči održavanja godišnjeg sastanka MMF-a i Svetske banke u Istanbulu 6. i 7. oktobra.

Agencija za utvrđivanje kreditnog rejtinga „Dan i Bredstrit” (D&B) je u oktobarskom izveštaju Srbiju svrstala među zemlje visokog rizika, sa rejtingom DB5a

Opšti pogled na ekonomiju je i dalje slab i negativni rizici preovlađuju, pa je Srbija ponovo svrstana u zemlje visokog rizika.

Analitičari D&B navode da je neizvesno da li će Srbija u 2010. godini zabeležiti planirani rast i dodaju da će strane investicije i krediti koji su do 2008. bili ključni pokretači potrošnje i investicija, ostati smanjeni, dok će se nezaposlenost ubrzano rasti.

Kako se ukazuje, Misija Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF) Srbiji u poslednjoj nedelji avgusta dala ohrabrujuće znake da ekonomski i finansijski pad može biti ublažen. Naveli su i da je Vlada Srbije umesto povećanja poreza najavila smanjenje troškova i reformu javnog sektora, da bi u skladu sa merilima MMF ograničila budžetski deficit.

Analitičari D&B su naveli da je "očuvanje zdravlja" javnih finansija i reforma drugih javnih sektora važna za dugoročne ekonomske izglede Srbije, ali su izrazili uverenje da je insistiranje MMF na smanjenju deficita malo preterano s obzirom na sadašnju ekonomsku situaciju. Malo je verovatno da će MMF povući svoju podršku Srbiji, čak i ako se Srbija striktno ne pridržava ciljnih deficita, smatraju u „Dan i Bredstritu”.

Analitičari Dan i Bredstrita su naveli da je BDP Srbije u prvom u prvom tromesečju ove godine bio za 3,5 odsto manji nego u istom periodu prošle godine, dok je industrijska proizvodnja od januara do jula opala za 17,2 u odnosu na isti period prošle godine.

Ocenili su da je pozitivno što je u padu industrijskih pokazatelja isključeno nivelisanje i što su finansijski propusti značajno smanjeni zbog ranije podrške MMF-a koja je pomogla da se očuva finansijska stabilnost.

U „Dan i Bredstritu” su istakli da je bankarski sistem u Srbiji ostao zdrav pošto su strane banke, vlasnici skoro celog finansijskog sektora, nastavile da podržavaju poslovanje u Srbiji.

Švajcarska farmaceutska kompanija Farmasvis najavila je juče da bi sredinom 2010. godine trebalo da počne izgradnju fabrike lekova u Beogradu, u koju će uložiti 20 miliona evra. Investitor je HBM Bajovenčrs, najveća evropska investiciona kompanija u oblasti humane medicine i biotehnologije, koja poseduje 29 odsto akcija Farmasvisa


Goran Stojanović , direktor za razvoj proizvodnje Farmasvisa u Srbiji, rekao je na konferenciji za novinare da je reč je o grinfild investiciji po čijem završetku će se kompletan proizvodni proces odvijati u našoj zemlji. Nova fabrika će doneti transfer tehnologije, oko 200 novih radnih mesta, veće poreske obaveze, ali i bolju dostupnost lekova i veću fleksibilnost u snabdevanju tržišta.

Fabrika, proizvodne površine 7.000 kvadratnih metara, građevinski će biti završena početkom 2011, dok bi prvi lekovi „sa trake“ krenuli početkom 2012. godine. Godišnja proizvodnja Farmasvisa iznosi oko devet miliona pakovanja, a sa novom fabrikom proizvodni kapaciteti biće povećani četiri do pet puta.

Razvijene zemlje će dogodine zabeležiti rast od 1,7 odsto, a nerazvijene 5,5 procenata. – Prevelika javna potrošnja uzrokovala je visok fiskalni deficit koji ne može da traje zauvek – upozorio Olivije Blančard, glavni ekonomista MMF-a

Umesto pitanja studenata Bilgi univerziteta u Istanbulu kojima je objašnjavao uzroke svetske ekonomske krize, Dominik Stros-Kan, šef Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda, iz publike je dobio cipelu. Poručujući MMF-u da ide „napolje iz Turske” mladić koji je sedeo u prvim redovima izuo je cipelu i gađao gosta. Srećom, prvi čovek MMF-a izbegao je „napad”, a obezbeđenje je odmah reagovalo i mladića, koji je cipelom „poželeo dobrodošlicu” šefu MMF-a, izvelo iz sale Od našeg specijalnog izveštača
Istanbul, 1. oktobra – Konačno imamo dobre vesti. Tim rečima je Olivije Blančard, glavni ekonomista Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF) otvorio današnju konferenciju za štampu u Kongresnom centru u Istanbulu. „Finansijsko tržište pokazuje znake oporavka, mnoge zemlje zabeležiće pozitivan rast već na kraju ove godine, a naročito dogodine“, objasnio je Blančard na čemu temelji svoj optimizam, nekoliko dana pre početka godišnje skupštine MMF-a i Svetske banke.

– Naše prognoze pokazuju da će rast u razvijenim zemljama 2010. godine iznositi 1,7 odsto, dok će u nerazvijenim i zemljama i područjima u razvoju on dostići 5,5 procenata. Pre godinu dana ovako pozitivne rezultate niko nije mogao da nasluti – kazao je Blančard.

Inače, u izveštaju MMF-a o globalnim ekonomskim kretanjima navodi se da će pad srpske ekonomije do kraja godine iznositi četiri odsto, dok je dogodine predviđen rast od 1,5 odsto.

– Šta je manje dobra vest? To što prilagođavanje budžeta zahtevima potrošnje mora da se završi. Prevelika javna potrošnja uzrokovala je visoke fiskalne deficite koji ne mogu da traju zauvek. Primera radi, projektovani nivo manjka u državnim kasama razvijenih zemalja do 2014. godine može da dostigne čak 110 odsto bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Kreatori fiskalne politike jednostavno će morati da se suoče s tim i obezbede zdravu raspodelu troškova u javnim kasama – upozorio je Blančard.

Prema podacima MMF-a, prosečan fiskalni deficit u razvijenim zemljama ove godine iznosi 4,6 odsto, dok je za narednu godinu prognoziran nešto manji minus (4,1) u odnosu da bruto domaći proizvod. Od razvijenih ekonomija, rekorder po dubini rupe u državnoj kasi je Japan, jer deficit te zemlje u 2009. godini iznosi devet odsto.

– Ove brojke ne treba da zavaraju vlasti da pomisle da je kriza gotova. Zemlje moraju da se uzdrže od ekonomske politike koju su primenjivale u prethodnih nekoliko godina. Istovremeno, moraju naći način da izvedu zemlju iz recesije – savetovao je on.

I dok će izlazna strategija u monetarnoj politici u mnogim zemljama biti tehničke prirode, traženje odgovarajućeg rešenja za fiskalnu sferu ići će mnogo teže, dodaje.

– Nekima će biti neophodne i krupne reforme penzionog i zdravstvenog sistema – kazao je Blančard, što je primedba koja se odnosi i na Srbiju.

Inače, u materijalu Svetske banke koji je juče podeljen novinarima u pres centru navodi se da je region Evrope i centrale Azije žestoko pogođen krizom, pa se procenjuje da će do kraja godine pad ekonomije dostići 5,9 odsto. Ohrabrujuće je, dodaju, što se ekonomija u regionu stabilizuje, ali s druge strane nije dobro to što nezaposlenost i siromaštvo rastu.

Većina zemalja, ocenjuje se u izveštaju, zakoračila je u recesiju sa visokim spoljnim dugom, pozamašnim minusom u državnoj kasi, rapidnim povećanjem zaduženosti. Stručnjaci Svetske banke izračunali su da prosečna rupa u budžetu zemalja ovog regiona iznosi minus 4,8 odsto BDP-a, što znači da je Srbija sa planiranih 5,5 procenata iznad proseka.

Inače, Svetska banka je ove godine za region Evrope i Azije odobrila 12,5 milijardi dolara finansijske pomoći. Za jačanje bankarskog sektora Svetska banka, Evropska banka za obnovu i razvoj (EBRD) i Evropska investiciona banka izdvojili su 31 milijardu dolara podrške.

Strategija za izlaz neophodna je za oporavak i poslovno poverenje, jer preduzeća i stanovništvo moraju da budu uvereni da vlade neće nastaviti da gomilaju dug - istakao je Triše

Ministri finansija evrozone nisu odredili 2011. godinu kao krajnji rok, već su zaključili da vlade treba da sačekaju nove ekonomske prognoze sa potvrdom da se region izvlači iz krize.


Novi test za finansijski sistem

ECB će ubuduće kombinovati testiranja finansijskog sistema radi provere njegovog "zdravlja", izjavio je potpredsednik ECB Lukas Papademos, iznoseći svoje gledište o novom nadzornom telu koje treba da sprečava pojavu kriza.
Evropska komisija, izvršno telo Evropske unije, objavila je ranije ovog meseca svoj plan za reformisanje načina na koji se upravlja bankama i finansijskim tržištima sa ciljem da spreči ponavljanja globalne ekonomske i finansijske krize. Komisija planira da oformi nadzorno telo na nivou cele EU, čije će članove postavljati i kojim će upravljati ECB, a koje će upozoravati na rane znake krize.
Papademos je na finansijskoj konferenciji u Švedskoj rekao da će takozvana uprava za rizike koristiti široku lepezu instrumenata radi procene "zdravlja" finansijskih tržišta i ekonomije. On je predočio da "merenje temperature" pacijenta nije dovoljno i da će ono biti dopunjeno drugim testovima, kao i "mišljenjem lekara", kako bi se odabrao pravi lek za sprečavanje krize.
- ECB radi na razvoju instrumenata i modela za rano upozorenje radi alarmiranja u slučaju pojave opasnosti po finansijski sistem - ukazao je Papademos.
Član Saveta guvernera ECB Aleks Veber je naglasio da će i dalje posvećivati pažnju glavnom cilju ECB - održavanju inflacije na stabilnom nivou, uprkos povećanoj usredsređenosti na finansijsku stabilnost.
- Ono što smo naučili iz sadašnje krize je da stabilnost cena i finansijska stabilnost idu ruku pod ruku - rekao je Veber.

Serbian water bottler Knjaz Milos, owned by UK-based investment fund Salford Capital Partners, has forecast net revenue of 3.06 billion dinars ($47.9 million/32.9 million euro) and an operating profit of 833.4 million dinars for the second half of 2009.
No comparative data was immediately available.
Knjaz Milos posted 576.8 million dinars in operating profit last year on operating revenue of 6.7 billion dinars, its 2008 consolidated statement showed.
“In the second half of 2009, the company plans to launch new offerings and further expand its existing product line,” Knjaz Milos said in a filing to the Belgrade Stock exchange late on Wednesday.
The company also said it expects to move a total of 124.4 million litres of drinks in the six-month period through December 31, 2009.
Knjaz Milos, located in the central town of Arandjelovac, is the leading water bottler in Serbia with a 44% market share, Salford said last year.
Other major bottled water brands on the Serbian market include Karadjordje, bottled by Palanacki Kiseljak, owned by Slovenia's Droga Kolinska, Heba, Rosa, owned by Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling company, Minaqua and Voda Vrnjci.
Besides Knjaz Milos, Salford also owns Serbian dairy company Imlek and confectionery maker Bambi-Banat as well as several dairy firms in Bosnia, Montenegro and Macedonia.

The privatization of Elektroporcelan Industry, which is one of the biggest companies in Arandjelovac, finally ended after three years. The sale contract on the purchase of Elektroporcelan was signed in the Privatization Agency. The new owner of Elektroporcelan is the consortium made of Belgrade companies VTV Makler, VTV Insulators, and Color S.I.M. Company from Ukraine. The consortium is obliged to pay EUR 350,000 to the Privatization Agency.

Serbia and Switzerland signed yesterday a memorandum of understanding which envisages aid to Serbia in its accession to the World Trade Organization amounting to about CHF 565,000. The memorandum was signed by the State Secretary to the Economy Minister Vesna Arsic and Swiss State Secretary for Economy Jean Daniel-Greber. Arsic said that, besides technical aid the memorandum includes help for Serbia even when it becomes a WTO member, in order for the Serbian companies to adjust more easily to the organization’s rules. Arsic said that this was the third phase of the project initiated in 2003, and this phase is to last until 2013.

Deputy Prime Minister for EU integration Bozidar Djelic and USAID Mission Director to Serbia Michael Harvey today stated that the USAID will approve an additional $4.3 million of non-repayable aid for the development of the civil society in Serbia. Djelic said that the USA is Serbia’s second largest donor of non-repayable funds, recalling that since 2001 it has granted over EUR 500 million. He explained that this donation is about improving the activities of the Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC) which is implementing a USD 14 million programme through which it has already financed 200 projects implemented by NGOs.

The General Manager of Putevi Srbije Zoran Drobnjak says that the works on the reconstruction of Gazela Bridge are to begin in 15-20 days, stressing that this would not endanger traffic in Belgrade. He says that 4 lanes on Gazela, two in each direction, are going to be operational at all times; each side of the bridge will be closed in two years because asphalt has to be put. He also announced that Putevi Srbije is going to introduce e-payment of toll on Belgrade-Nis highway, as well that the company will put a plastic white line that will last three years. The white line will be put first on the most dangerous sections. Drobanjak explained that this was a lane with “wrinkles” which should contribute to traffic safety and prevent drivers from falling asleep on the road, as well as make the drive easier in fog and rain.

On behalf of the German Government, the representatives of the German Organization for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) signed contracts with mayors of 27 Serbian towns and municipalities with less than 160,000 residents. The contract on donation worth EUR 360,000 was signed yesterday in Belgrade as part of the activities of Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities. The contract was signed in the presence of the German Ambassador to Belgrade, Wolfgang Maas, the State Secretary in the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Miladin Avramov, but the representatives of the Ministry of Public Administration and Local Self-Government and Ministry of Mining and Energy were also present. Funds are intended for financing the preparation of plan documentation for modernization of the water supply system, solid waste management, and increase in energy efficiency in those 27 towns and municipalities as the units of local self-government. According to some estimates of GTZ expert team, donation amounting to EUR 360,000 could mobilize significant investments in the country, the volume of which could exceed EUR 11mn.

Representatives of ComTrade welcomed Danilo Türk, president of Slovenia and the top political delegation from Serbia lead by the Serbian president Boris Tadić in their offices and presented current achievements and projects of the largest regional IT company. Guests were introduced to complex solutions for public administration, e-health, telecommunications companies and financial institutions, as well as online gaming solutions.

HERMES SoftLab was looking for ways to introduce new services in the field of Information technologies and expand its global reach and after the last years acquisition and inclusion into the ComTrade Group, this was enabled. Today, ComTrade as one of leading IT companies in Central and south eastern europe with over 1600 employees and offices in more than 20 countries is able to answer to all challenges of the global IT market.


During the presentations, spokespersons for HERMES SoftLab and ComTrade particularly emphasized new electronic services for healthcare and public administration which enable digitalization of relevant Business operations. "Increased use of IT services in healthcare and public sector increases the quality of services rendered to citizens and allows for greater effectiveness and optimization of costs." pointed out Veselin Jevrosimović, President and majority owner of ComTrade Group.

Gregor Smrekar, General manager of HERMES SoftLab stated: "HERMES SoftLab exports 80% of its products and services to demanding markets of the European Union and the USA. By joining technological, human and economic resources within the ComTrade Group we can fortify our presence in the Adriatic region, as well as in Middle East and USA markets."

The representatives of the Chinese company Bridges and Roads, which took part in the construction of the stadium of Bird’s Net for the last Olympic Games that were held in Beijing, are negotiating with the Serbian Government on the construction of the South Bypass around Kragujevac, and also a tunnel which should be around 1.5 km long. These days, Chinese company managers and experts stayed in Kragujevac, and the city government gave them all the necessary documentation which is required for the construction of the South Bypass, and a tunnel through Metino Hill. The documentation will allow them to compete for the job, worth around RSD 3bn. South Bypass around Kragujevac will represent a direct connection with a motorway from Kragujevac to Corridor 10, and this is the contractual obligation of the Government of Serbia and the city of Kragujevac to Fiat.

Lobbying will no longer be a hidden activity that happens far for public eyes. Instead, licensed professionals will be able to freely influence ministers and other state officials on behalf of their employers. This is the reason why the Association of Serbian Lobbyists decided to represent the draft bill on lobbying which will regulate the influence on public administration organs. This legal solution envisages the establishment of the lobbyists’ register, as well as their licensing, but also the prohibition of lobbyist activity to all state officials and political party officials.

Finance Ministry said it has sold out its 2.0 billion dinar ($31.2 million/21.5 million euro) offer of six-month Treasury bills.

The average accepted price in the auction was equal to 94% of par and the accepted interest rate was 12.03%, the ministry said in a statement posted on its website late on Thursday.

The ministry sold 200,000 T-bills with a nominal value of 10,000 dinars each. The government securities will mature on April 1, 2010.


In the previous auction of six-month T-bills held on September 24 the ministry also sold its entire offer of 2.0 billion dinars worth of government securities at an annual interest rate of 12.03%.

Serbia holds scheduled auctions of six-month T-bills every week on Thursdays and of three-month T-bills on Tuesdays. It started holding auctions of 12-month T-bills in August in a bid to narrow the yawning budget gap.

The next auctions of three-month and six-month T-bills will be held on October 6 and October 8, respectively.

Swiss pharmaceutical company PharmaSwiss announced yesterday that it should start building a drug factory in Belgrade, in mid-2010; the overall investment will amount to EUR 20 million. The investor is HBM Bioventures, the biggest European investor in the area of humane medicine and biotechnology, and the owner of a 29% stake in PharmaSwiss. Goran Stojanovic, the director for production development in PharmaSwiss Serbia, said at a press conference that this was a Greenfield investment aimed at establishing the complete production process in Serbia. The new factory is to bring along the transfer of technology, about 200 jobs, higher taxes, but also easier access to medications and an increased degree of flexibility when it comes to supplying the market.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic contraction in Southeastern Europe (see) to slow down to 0.1% next year from 7.5% projected for 2009, the global lender said on Thursday.

"Emerging Europe has been hit particularly hard by the drop in capital inflows. This led to major contractions in the Baltic economies, Bulgaria, and Romania, although exchange rates acted as a shock absorber in economies with flexible regimes," the IMF said in the autumn edition of twice-a-year World Economic Outlook.

The see economy grew by a real 6.1% last year, the same growth rate as in 2007, the IMF said in the report.

"In emerging Europe, following a contraction in real GDP of 5.25 percent in 2009, a return to positive growth is expected in 2010. [...] Over the medium term, GDP growth is likely to return to precrisis rates only gradually, as supply remains sluggish and balance sheet adjustment continues to weigh on demand."

Details from the report follow:


GDP GROWTH (in pct)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania 6.3 6.8 0.7 2.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 6.8 5.5 -3.0 0.5
Bulgaria 6.2 6.0 -6.5 -2.5
Croatia 5.5 2.4 -5.2 0.4
Macedonia 5.9 4.9 -2.5 2.0
Moldova 3.0 7.2 -9.0 0.0
Montenegro 10.7 7.5 -4.0 -2.0
Romania 6.2 7.1 -8.5 0.5
Serbia 6.9 5.4 -4.0 1.5
Slovenia 6.8 3.5 -4.7 0.6


CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (annual average, in pct)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania 2.9 3.4 1.7 2.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5 7.4 0.9 1.6
Bulgaria 7.6 12.0 2.7 1.6
Croatia 2.9 6.1 2.8 2.8
Macedonia 2.3 8.3 -0.5 2.0
Moldova 12.4 12.7 1.4 7.7
Montenegro 3.5 9.0 3.4 2.1
Romania 4.8 7.8 5.5 3.6
Serbia 6.5 11.7 9.9 7.3
Slovenia 3.6 5.7 0.5 1.5


CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (as pct of GDP)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania -9.1 -14.1 -11.5 -8.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina -12.7 -14.7 -8.8 -9.1
Bulgaria -25.2 -25.5 -11.4 -8.3
Croatia -7.6 -9.4 -6.1 -5.4
Macedonia -7.2 -13.1 -10.6 -9.7
Moldova -17.0 -17.7 -11.8 -11.9
Montenegro -29.4 -29.6 -16.0 -11.0
Romania -13.5 -12.4 -5.5 -5.6
Serbia -15.6 -17.3 -9.1 -10.6
Slovenia -4.2 -5.5 -3.0 -4.7

Provider of international and US business credit information and credit reports Dun&Bradstreet places Serbia among the high-risk countries with DB5a rating in October report. D&B says it is uncertain whether Serbia will achieve the planned growth in 2010.

D&B analysts also say that foreign investments and loans will remain low, while unemployment rate will grow. They point out that public finance stability and public sector reform are vital for long term economic growth of Serbia.

Serbian gas monopoly, Srbijagas, has paid 220 million dinars ($3.4 million/2.1 million euro) to pick up the entire placement of new shares of local PC equipment vendor and IT solutions provider Informatika, the IT company said.

The placement consisted of 55,000 ordinary shares with a nominal value of 1,200 dinars each, Informatika said in a filing to the Belgrade Stock exchange on Thursday.

Srbijagas bought the shares at an issue price of 4,000 dinars each, the statement said.


No Information was immediately available on the size of the company's capital after the issue of new shares. Informatika's core capital totalled 155.2 million dinars divided into 128,807 ordinary shares at the end of 2008, the company's 2008 financial statement showed.

Informatika posted a gross profit of 136.3 million dinars on total revenues of 1.95 billion dinars last year.

The biggest single shareholder in the company at the end of 2008 was investment fund manager ZB Invest with 5.51%, followed by individual shareholder Mirko Pantelic with 5.26% and Belgrade-based brokerage Delta broker with 4.2%.

A 200 million euro loan that Russia may extend to Serbian state-owned railways operator may be used to finance the modernisation of railway junctions in Belgrade. An agreement for extending the loan to Zeleznice Srbije could be signed on October 20 when Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev is scheduled to visit Serbia.