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MIĆIĆ: Teško stanje u građevinarstvu
Građevinarstvo u Srbiji je u veoma teškoj situaciji jer je u ovoj godini zabeležen pad aktivnosti za 50 odsto, a tu oblast prate nelikvidnost i neplaćanje, ocenio je Mića Mićić, direktor Jedinstva iz Sevojna, jednog od najuspešnijih domaćih preduzeća

On je dodao da je, pored teškog stanja i smanjenog obima posla za građevinare, to preduzeće tokom ove godine primilo dvadeset radnika. „Iako je kriza, u preduzeću ne kasne zarade niti je bilo otpuštanja“, dodao je Mićić i podsetio da preduzeće funkcioniše od poslova koje je ugovorilo prošle godine, čija je vrednost oko trideset miliona evra.


- Vlada Srbije će sutra formirati radnu grupu koja će utvrditi detalje tog plana - izjavio je Cvetko

Predsednik Vlade Srbije Mirko Cvetković najavio je da će za mesec dana biti završen plan za pomoć onima koji su najviše pogođeni ekonomskom krizom


- Vlada Srbije će sutra formirati radnu grupu koja će utvrditi detalje tog plana - izjavio je Cvetković na Poslovnom forumu Srbije i Makedonije u Beogradu.
Plan će, kako je naveo, obuhvatiti posredovanje Vlade Srbije između radnika i poslodavaca koji ne izvršavaju obaveze prema zaposlenima, mere protiv onih koji krše zakon i jednokratnu finansijsku pomoć za najugroženije. Premijer je kazao da će Vlada Srbije plan usvojiti "u roku od jednog meseca". On je istakao da će Vlada Srbije time "zatvoriti paket mera za borbu protiv krize", pošto je ranije usvojen plan za ekonomsku stabilnost.
Budžet Srbije trenutno se puni sporije nego što je planirano, ali je javna potrošnja u planiranom okviru, kazao je Cvetković i dodao da se o tome razgovara i s Međunarodnim monetarnim fondom (MMF). Cvetković je kazao da je plan za ekonomsku stabilnost dao rezultate, što se vidi po tome da se povećava štednja građana, da je kurs dinara stabilan i da se postepeno smanjuje referentna kamatna stopa Narodne banke Srbije.
On je izrazio očekivanje da će biti nastavljeno smanjenje referentne kamatne stope, što bi banke trebalo da podstakne da plasiraju više novca u privredu.



Halal tržište šansa za Srbiju
Prehrambena industrija Srbije još nije iskoristila mogućnost plasmana svojih proizvoda na tržišta islamskih zemalja


Profesor na Institutu političkih nauka u Parizu Čedomir Nestorović kaže da treba povećati broj kompanija sa halal sertifikatom, jer je to tržište najbrže rastuće tržište u svetu koje trenutno vredi 650 milijardi dolara godišnje, dok istovremeno halal sertifikat u Srbiji ima samo oko 40 firmi.

U vreme globalne ekonomske krize nedopustivo je da neka tržišta ostanu nedostupna, kazao je on i dodao da islamske zemlje uglavnom nemaju dovoljno hrane, zbog čega su primorane da je uvoze, što se naročito odnosi na meso, prerađevine od mesa i mlečne proizvode, a to bi, kako je dodao, mogla biti šansa za preduzeća iz Srbije.

Nestorović smatra da bi za bolji nastup na tim tržištima srpske kompanije, pre svega mlekare i mesna industrija, trebalo da se udruže, a kao zemlje u koje bi njihovi proizvodi najviše mogli da se plasiraju on je naveo Indoneziju, pojedine republike Rusije, kao i grad Moskvu, ali i Francusku, Nemačku i SAD.

Kako je dodao, zanimljivo je i više od 40 islamskih zemalja, koje su u oganizaciji Pokreta nesvrstanih, čije tržište od ranije zna za Srbiju i neke njene proizvode, među kojima su Egipat, Irak, Malezija. Prema njegovim rečima, tamo bi mogla da se izvozi jagnjetina, sušena ili govedina u konzervama, sudžuk, puter, maslac, sirevi.
 
Procenjuje se da u svetu ima oko 1,6 milijardi muslimana, a samo u Rusiji oko 20 miliona, gde je tržište halal hrane vredno 21 milijardu dolara godišnje, kazao je Nestorović.

U Francuskoj, koja ima oko sedam miliona muslimana, godišnji rast potrošnje halal mesa je od sedam do deset procenata, iako ukupna potrošnja mesa u toj zemlji opada za dva do tri odsto, dodao je on.

Nestorović je naveo da su najveći izvoznici halal hrane neislamske zemlje kao što su Australija, Novi Zeland, Tajland, Brazil i Singapur, što znači da je, kako je istakao, presudna kvalitetna ponuda hrane.

Prema njegovim rečima, za uvođenje halal sertifikata treba odvojiti četiri do pet hiljada evra, ali je država pre nekoliko nedelja odlučila da refundira 40 odsto te sume svim kompanijama u Srbiji koje žele da uvedu halal sertifikat, ukoliko ga traže od Islamske zajednice Srbije.
 
Halal način ishrane je svojstven islamu i predstavlja obavezu za muslimanske vernike, a podrazumeva poseban način uzgoja i klanja stoke, kao i zabranu korišćenja pojedinih vrsta mesa, pre svega svinjskog, ali i alkohola, insekata, pojedinih aditiva.


Kriza i loše privatizacije desetkuju proizvodnju
Industrijska proizvodnja u Šumadiji i Pomoravlju beleži sve veći pad u odnosu na ostvarene prošlogodišnje rezultate. U prvih pet meseci ove godine, proizvodnja je manja za 30 odsto u odnosu na isti period 2008

Prema podacima Regionalne privredne komore u Kragujevcu, pad proizvodnje u Šumadiji i Pomoravlju ove godine zabeležen je u 19 od ukupno 22 industrijske grane. Bolji poznavaoci domaćih privrednih prilika smatraju da drastičan pad industrijske proizvodnje u ovom delu Srbije, pored posledica globalne finansijske i ekonomske krize, uzrokuje i neuspešna privatizacija većine šumadijsko-pomoravskih firmi. U Kragujevcu su, primer radi, propale sve privatizovane firme u ovdašnjoj industrijskoj zoni, u kojima je ne tako davno bilo zaposleno nekoliko hiljada radnika. Slično je i u ostalim šumadijskim opština. U Rači Kragujevačkoj više ne funkcioniše nijedna industrijska firma. Sve su propale nakon privatizacija ili „razvučene“ u stečajnim postupcima. U Rači je nekada bilo zaposleno oko 5.000 žitelja te šumadijske varoši, a danas 300 do 400 i svi rade u opštini, prosveti i zdravstvu.


Protekcionizam širi krizu

Protekcionizam može produbiti i produžiti ekonomsku krizu, čak i ako ne dovodi do privrednog slabljenja, ocenio je generalni direktor Svetske trgovinske organizacije (STO) Paskal Lami u uvodnom delu "Godišnjeg izveštaja o trgovini"

- Prividno privlačno kratkoročno rešenje zadržavanja proizvodnje i potrošnje unutar granica ubrzo postaje kamen oko vrata nacije, tim pre ako i trgovinski partneri odgovore na isti način - ukazao je Lami.
U izveštaju se takođe ocenjuje da pravni "sigurnosni ventili", koji omogućavaju zemljama da suspenduju obaveze koje se tiču trgovine, mogu naneti štetu svetskoj trgovini ukoliko se zloupotrebe u protekcionističke svrhe.
STO je u svom izveštaju istražila praksu korišćenja "vanrednih mera", s obzirom na strahovanja od protekcionizma u sadašnjoj globalnoj krizi, preneo je Rojters.
Ta organizacija, koja nadgleda globalnu trgovinu, istraživala je restriktivne mere koje preuzima niz zemalja - kako one kojima se krše trgovinski sporazumi, tako i one koje su dozvoljene u okviru postojećih dogovora.
Lami je ranije ovog meseca izjavio da vlade zemalja nepravično blokiraju trgovinu, kao odgovor na ekonomsko slabljenje.
STO je istražila vanredne mere, kao što su mere samozaštite, antidamping i kompenzirajuće carine, revidiranje dogovorenih tarifa, izvozne carine i povećanje carina na maksimalni dogovoreni nivo.
Ekonomska istraživanja su pokazala da se korišćenje takvih mera, naročito antidampinških, povećava tokom ekonomskog slabljenja, navedeno je u izveštaju.
Antidamping je uvođenje kompenzacione carine na uvoz proizvoda koji se, kako se smatra, prodaje ispod cene koju ima u zemlji porekla, što često dovodi do trgovinskih razmirica.
Jedan od poslednjih takvih slučajeva predstavljaju planovi Kine da se obrati STO povodom antidampinških carina koje je uvela Evropska unija na uvoz kineskih zavrtanja i gvozdenih klinova.
Jedno istraživanje stručnjaka sa Harvarda je, međutim, pokazalo da će broj zahteva američkih firmi za uvođenje antidampinških mera biti verovatno prepolovljen u tekućoj fiskalnoj godini u odnosu na 24 takva zahteva u 2008. i biti sveden na četvrtinu u poređenju s prosekom od 48 godišnje tokom 80-ih godina prošlog veka, što govori da se ta mera ne zloupotrebljava radi protekcionizma.
Vanredne mere pružaju vlastima mogućnost za privremeno odstupanje od trgovinskih obaveza i omogućuju im da se prilagode izmenjenim ekonomskim uslovima, vanrednim zdravstvenim i ekološkim situacijama ili tehnološkom razvoju događaja u inostranstvu koji stavljaju domaće proizvođače u podređeni položaj.
Te mere, međutim, imaju tendenciju da rešavaju probleme samo u pojedinim sektorima i zanemaruju uticaj na privredu u celini, ukazala je STO.
Antidampinške carine, na primer, mogu "kupiti vreme" za domaće kompanije, ali istovremeno pogoditi potrošače i druge firme koji zavise od uvoznih inputa time što dovode do povećanja cena.
Kompenzirajuće carine, koje se uvode kao kompenzacija za subvencije u drugim zemljama, pre pomažu domaćim proizvođačima, nego što koriste privredi u celini ili što obeshrabruju subvencije u drugim zemljama, ukazala je STO.



Government to draft measures to help most vulnerable groups
Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic said today that the government will form a working group at its session tomorrow which will begin to prepare a plan for helping the most disadvantaged groups in Serbia. He said that it is expected that the plan will be completed and approved within a month.


Cvetkovic explained that the plan will contain a round up of the measures taken by the government according to the programme for dealing with the effects of the economic crisis. He specified that the plan will also define more closely the relationship between employers and their employees and the penalties for all those found to be guilty of violating financial laws, and will also provide one-off assistance to those most disadvantaged.

The Prime Minister added that the public will be informed about this plan during the latter half of August.


Serbia, Macedonia to enhance business activities
Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic said today that the Macedonian delegation visiting Serbia will discuss ways to improve and increase trade between the two countries, which has been falling since the beginning of this year as a result of the economic crisis.



Mirko Cvetkovic
Photo: Fonet
Speaking at the Serbian-Macedonian business forum at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, Cvetkovic said that the level of investment is not satisfactory and it is hoped that further contact and direct meetings between business people will produce better results.

We expect that these meetings will result in an increase in trade which will return it to earlier or even higher levels, said the Prime Minister, adding that trade with Macedonia stood at $900 million last year and Serbia’s surplus was $100 million.

He added that Macedonia is Serbia’s sixth largest trading partner according to the volume of Serbian exports and in 26th place regarding imports.

Cvetkovic said that investment levels are unsatisfactory, Serbia having invested $40 million in Macedonia while Macedonian investment in Serbia is quite insignificant.

The Serbian Prime Minister informed the forum about the measures taken by his government to deal with the economic crisis. He stated that these measures have secured macroeconomic stability, a stable currency and low interest rates and have also increased people’s foreign currency savings.

The inflow of budgetary revenues is slower than expected but expenditure is within planned limits, said Cvetkovic.

Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski said that Serbia is Macedonia’s top trade partner.

One of the ways the two countries can handle the crisis is to support enterprise and increase business cooperation, said Gruevski

He said that Macedonia has done a lot to improve the business climate.

Gruevski said that Macedonia is economically stable, the annual inflation rate is around 2%, the budget deficit is not large and the public debt is only 25% of the GDP.

The annual growth rate of the GDP since 2007 has been around 6% and foreign investment in 2007 and 2008 reached €1 billion, said the Macedonian Prime Minister.


The Government of Serbia to Abolish the First 100 Unnecessary Provisions
The Government of Serbia should adopt a provision today with which to abolish the first 100 unnecessary provisions that make the economy’s operating even harder, said Andreja Marusic, the Manager of the Unit for full scale regulatory reform.


Those Who Signed Contract Sue Bank in Vain
Goran Popovic, President of the National Consumer Organization of Serbia says that this organization is receiving consumer’s complaints on a daily basis regarding the work of banks that do business in Serbia. People are largely complaining to the terms of consumer and housing loans, interests and generally, to contracts they signed with banks, since they change them one-sidedly. Since there is no law regarding consumer protection in Serbia, based on the jurisdictions we have, we cannot help consumers. We are advising them to contact the National Bank of Serbia and their call centre, and the NBS should take certain steps against banks’ inappropriate behaviour – Popovic says. The other way, in which this organization can help consumers is to fold a paper and sue the bank, because that’s their right. – Knowing that court proceedings in Serbia last between three and five years, that seems pointless too.


Governor Jelasic: Crisis Is an Opportunity for Reforms
Central and Eastern European countries are justifiably proud of the progress they have made in the past 20 years of reform. But their transition from planned to market economies remains incomplete. The recent financial crisis, followed by a world-wide economic slowdown, is exposing all the areas in which these countries still need to improve. The crisis is magnifying mistakes they have made so far, and calls for policy makers to rethink their current economic growth models.

That model has been based on two key pillars. The main one has been developing service sectors such as communications, trade, financial services and real estate. This made sense at the time, and still does, as the transition to a market economy includes a substantive change in how GDP is generated.

Second, the region’s rapid growth grew increasingly dependent on an influx of relatively cheap foreign capital, both greenfield and brownfield investments. Since 2004, we have witnessed close to €900 billion of such capital inflow, nearly half of which (€427 billion) stemmed from the expanding banking sectors of these economies alone. These flows were so substantial that only a year ago some even questioned whether there was a need for international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development anymore.

The flood of capital was successful in concealing several critical red flags. Current account deficits were increasing much faster than GDP growth. By the end of 2008, several countries recorded double digit figures (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania), with some even above 20% (Bulgaria and Montenegro). Moreover, it took only a short period of time for cross-border liabilities in most of these countries to surpass the value of total domestic banking activity, thus increasing the level of dependency on foreign funding. Because capital was so readily available to cover the gaps—central bank reserves actually increased during this time—the significance of these negative developments was almost completely ignored. But for those who looked closely, it was clear that many countries were increasing their vulnerability to external financing shocks day by day.

Now that just such an external shock has happened, it is time for a re-evaluation of the previous two decades’ growth pattern. For all the trouble it has brought, this crisis is an opportunity to put Central and Eastern Europe on a more sustainable growth path.

This will require both a short-term and a long-term approach. Over the short-term, governments need to find ways to cover growing financing gaps. The good news here is that EU members in Central and Eastern Europe have been able to draw substantial support from the EU. Such support has doubled since the beginning of this year, to €50 billion from €25 billon. However, as this program has been designed for “members only,” other countries have no alternative but to be satisfied with the leftovers, measured in hundreds of millions instead of billions of euros. The IMF has shown clear leadership in providing a helping hand to several CEE countries by providing substantial funds, fast and under generous conditions, for immediate fire-fighting purposes.

But that money taken today needs to be paid back tomorrow. We can no longer put off reckoning with the deeper causes of our problems. The key issue will be fixing what Hungarian economist Janos Kornai has called the “premature welfare state.” Too many countries have expanded their expenditures, especially on social programs, substantially beyond their ability to pay. This will call for a five-point plan:

First, pension reform. The pension system basically suffocates all the economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which are trying to fund payments to a growing number of retirees living longer and longer by using current contribution from a shrinking number of workers. Nominal pensions must be reduced to a long-term sustainable level. Some countries will need to re-examine pension eligibility rules to control the number of recipients. In several countries, including Serbia, fewer than 20% of pension recipients have worked the 35 to 40 years foreseen by the pension law before retiring.

Second, political taboos on discussion of the costs of health care and education must be broken. Even though government expenditure on health in Serbia has remained roughly constant as a percent of GDP over the past several years (at around 6%), in an environment of rapid economic growth this means that since 2003, the Ministry of Health budget almost doubled. The majority of the funds were used for the increase of real wages, which grew at 10-15% annually. Similarly with education, total spending remained at a level of around 5% GDP, despite the fact that the average number of students per class has steadily declined.

Third, all other public expenditures generally have to be brought back to the level of the “normal welfare state”—the level that would be achieved with more decentralized, market-oriented solutions and aiming at an equilibrium between state and private initiatives. Governments must rethink a range of functions, from road building to infrastructure projects, from social assistance to enterprise subsidies, to keep spending under control and maximize return on taxpayer money.

Fourth, the capacity of tax authorities must be substantially boosted and the fight against grey markets should be a key priority. Broadening the tax burden and ensuring efficient collection will make it easier for governments to fund their obligations without imposing higher tax rates on a continuously shrinking number of taxpayers.

Last but not least, exchange rate regimes must be revisited, especially in the countries with fixed exchange rates, as there is a growing concern if the current shocks could be amortized by relying solely on fiscal tools. Exchange rates, especially in the case of small and open economies, play a crucial role in achieving medium- and long-term stability.

Implementation of these changes, under the impact of the current crisis, will be even more difficult than normal. But reforms cannot wait for better times; they must be done now. As there is definitely no way back, transition economies urgently need to find their path forward.

—Mr. Jelasic is governor of the National Bank of Serbia.


Earmarking Money for Environmental Projects
The European Commission announced a public competition for disbursing EUR 30 million of non-returnable aid to innovating environmental projects the goal of which is to decrease negative influences on the environment, announced the Economy Ministry.


Serbia in Regional Car Industry Project
Serbia’s car industry group will participate in an international project the goal of which is to form a network of producers and institutions in SEE which is to encourage the development and innovations in the production of car parts. The General Manager of Serbian automobile cluster Igor Vijatov said to Beta news agency that the project was to connect the producers of car parts, research centers and universities from Italy, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Serbia. The project got the green light from the EU Commission on July 10; the project will last two years and will get financial support from the EU.


Ikarbus’s Account Frozen Because of a Debt Amounting to EUR 7 Million
The account of bus producer Ikarbus was blocked because of debts exceeding EUR 7 million, which means that the company cannot pay wages to workers who embarked on a strike, said the president of the striking committee Velimir Gligoric.


Macedonia’s drug maker Alkaloid plans to start production in Serbia
Skopje-based pharmaceuticals producer Alkaloid plans to start drug production in Serbia in cooperation with Zemun-based Infarm. The head of the Alkaloid’s branch office in Belgrade Igor Petrov says the company plans to invest EUR 4 million and create at least 25 jobs in the first operating stage.

In the second stage, the company plans to produce 19 types of drugs, according to Petrov. Petrov also informs that there is a possibility of export of Serbia-made drugs to Russia and other countries.


EUR 183 million in frozen foreign exchange paid from budget
The National Bank of Serbia informs that EUR 183.1 million was paid from Serbia’s budget for the redemption of government bonds issued against frozen foreign currency savings and foreign currency savings deposited with Dafiment banka and Jugoskandik.

EUR 88.9 million was paid in Mayy, EUR 67 million was paid in June, and EUR 27.2 million was paid by mid-July. From the beginning of the year to July 16, EUR 400,000 was spent for the redemption of government bonds before the date of maturity.


Finance minister: Economy to shrink by up to 5% this year
Serbian GDP will drop 3.5 to 5 percent by the end of the year, according to Serbian Minister of Finance Dijana Dragutinovic. Dragutinovic says the monthly budget income in 2009 dropped 3 percent in nominal terms, while realized income is 6 percent lower than projected for the 2009.

The Minister also says the GDP drop is not so dramatic, but the fact that expenditures structure has changed significantly raises concerns. The drop in expenditures is significantly higher than the GDP drop.


NBS: Conditions for support program met by 27 banks
National Bank of Serbia has announced the list of 27 banks that have met the conditions for participation in the programme of support and access to sources of Dinar and foreign currency liquidity.

These banks have taken over the obligations determined by so-called Viennese agreement. After the meeting with the representatives of 10 largest banks in Serbia in Vienna, NBS introduced special measures of support to financial stability of the country by the decision that was made on May 5th. The aim of these measures is to make it possible for the banks to access additional sources of Dinar and foreign currency liquidity.

In order to be able to use these support measures, the banks and their majority stockholders had to take over certain obligations determined by NBS and submit necessary documentation to prove that.

The obligations anticipate maintenance of operations at the level from December 2008 prior to end of year 2010 and maintenance of indices of adequacy of capital and indices of bank's liquidity at the stipulated level.

The obligations that the banks must take over concern enabling of conversion of foreign currency loan and loans with foreign currency clause into Dinar loans and enabling of changes in terms of loan repayment in accordance with the defined framework.

Out of total of 34 banks that operate in Serbia, the interest in participation in that programme was expressed by 31 banks and, after the documentation was submitted, NBS estimated that 27 banks had met the terms. NBS will offer, among the rest, new sources of liquidity to these banks, such as Dinar loans with maturity period of up to one year and short-term foreign currency swaps.

The banks that have met the terms for support measures are Alpha banka, Banca Intesa, Postal Savings Bank, Credy bank, Čačanska banka, Eurobank EFG, Erste bank, Findomestic, Hypo-Alpe-Adria, KBC bank, Komercijalna banka, Marfin banka, Meridijan banka, NLB banka, Opportunity banka, OTP bank, Piraeus bank.

The list also includes Privredna banka Pančevo, Privredna banka Beograd, Raiffeisen banka, ProCredit, Societe Generale, Srpska banka, Vojvođanska banka, UniCredit, Univerzal and Volks bank.


MTBN uskoro bez prinudne uprave

Narodna banka Srbije priprema ukidanje prinudne uprave u Metals banci iz Novog Sada koja je uvedena u oktobru 2008


Metals banka sredinom jula izvršila je dokapitalizaciju u iznosu od 3.784 milijardi dinara, čime je uspostavljena odgovarajuća solventnost i likvidnost banke. Formalno okončanje postupka prinudne uprave biće sprovedeno nakon imenovanja novih organa Metals banke, saopštila NBS.

Prinudna uprava u ovoj banci uvedena je zbog njenog tadašnjeg lošeg finansijskog stanja, prouzrokovanog krizom likvidnosti koja je eskalirala u periodu u kome se banka već nalazila pod određenim korektivnim merama NBS, saopštila je centralna banka.

"Nemogućnost rukovodstva i akcionara da samostalno poprave finansijsko stanje banke i obezbede likvidna sredstva nepohodna za prevazilaženje finansijskih poteškoća, dovela je, u skladu sa propisima, do uvođenja prinudne uprave u banci i obezbeđivanja podrške od strane NBS u vidu kredita za likvidnost", stoji u saopštenju.

Cilj uvođenja prinudne uprave bilo je pronalaženje odgovarajućih rešenja kojim bi se zaštitili interesi deponenata i drugih poverilaca, kao i očuvanje stabilnosti bankarskog sistema, finansijske i makroekonomske stabilnosti, što je ostvareno.

Zahvaljujući merama NBS Metals banci je omogućeno da prevaziđe probleme, pri čemu zbog finansijske podrške nije izgubljen nijedan dinar, pošto je Metals banka u celosti otplatila Narodnoj banci Srbije kredit za likvidnost, navodi se u saopštenju.

Na osnovu sprovođenja odluka donetih na 35. sednici Skupštine akcionara banke, Metals banka je sredinom jula ove godine izvršila dokapitalizaciju Kupci akcija su Autonomna Pokrajina Vojvodina, koja je ovim stekla većinsko vlasništvo u banci, i DDOR koji je zadržao 10% učešća u kapitalu banke.



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