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Državni zapisi spas za fondove
Na kraju drugog kvartala u trezorske zapise je investirano 34,8 odsto sredstava, dvostruko više u odnosu na prethodno tromesečje

Za dobrovoljne penzijske fondove, u drugom kvartalu ove godine nije bilo krize, sudeći prema podacima Narodne banke Srbije. Neto imovina fondova je u odnosu na prvo tromesečje ove godine povećana za 13, a u odnosu na prošlogodišnji jun, za čak 58 odsto. Tako je industrija dobrovoljnih penzijskih fondova završila drugo tromesečje raspolažući sa 5,88 milijardi dinara, dok je u istom periodu prošle godine neto imovina iznosila 3,72 milijarde dinara.
Fondeks (Fondex), pokazatelj prosečne vrednosti investicionih jedinica svih fondova, od aprila do juna imao je prinos od 4,36 odsto, a od početka godine 8,18 odsto.
Osim što se imovina fondova povećala, značajno se promenila i njena struktura. Otkada su se u februaru na tržištu pojavili trezorski zapisi Ministarstva finansija i kako ih država sve češće i u sve većem obimu prodaje tako oni zauzimaju sve važnije mesto u investicionom portfelju penzijskih fondova. Tako je na kraju drugog kvartala u trezorske zapise investirano 34,8 odsto sredstava, dvostruko više u odnosu na prethodno tromesečje. Istovremeno je smanjeno učešće obveznica stare devizne štednje, pre svega zbog dospeća emisije A-2009.
Imovina fondova se mahom nalazi u dinarima, blizu četiri milijarde dinara, dok je trećina denominovana u evrima i to pre svega zbog posedovanja obveznica stare devizne štednje.
Za društva za upravljanje penzijskim fondovima omiljena destinacija za investiranje je država pošto je skoro 60 odsto imovine plasirano u trezorske zapise i obveznice stare devizne štednje. Visok udeo od 28,1 odsto ili 1,65 milijardi dinara nalazi se u neoročenim sredstvima, odnosno kešu, dok se u akcijama nalazi svega 6,9 odsto sredstava. Najmanje para fondovi drže u oročenim depozitima - 4,1 odsto, i u nekretninama - 1,32 odsto.
Zahvaljujući preokretu na Beogradskoj berzi i prelasku iz negativnih kretanja u rast, od marta ove godine, i rastu Beleksa 15 (Belex) od 50 odsto u odnosu na prethodni kvartal, ali još više zahvaljujući visokim prinosima na državne obveznice od 14 do 15 odsto u proseku, investicione jedinice svih fondova su zabeležile porast vrednosti u drugom tromesečju.
Takođe, sedam fondova koji postoje više od godinu dana prikazali su prinos koji su ostvarili u poslednjoj godini. Tako su, mereno Fondeksom, tek krajem prvog kvartala ušli u pozitivnu zonu sa godišnjim prinosom od 0,4 odsto, da bi u na kraju drugog kvartala ostvarili prinos od 3,7 odsto u prethodnih 12 meseci. Od početka poslovanja fondova godišnji prinos iznosi 6,7 odsto.
Na kraju 2008. godine, čak 89 odsto korisnika dobrovoljnih penzijskih fondova imalo je negativan prinos, drugim rečima, gubitak od pet do 10 odsto. Od početka 2009. godine situacija se popravlja, jer na kraju prvog kvartala ove godine 77 odsto korisnika ima gubitke do pet odsto. Međutim, na kraju polugodišta 80 odsto korisnika ima pozitivan prinos, odnosno dočekali su da vrednost njihovih uloženih sredstava počne da se uvećava i to do pet odsto.
Prema objašnjenju u Izveštaju o poslovanju sektora DPF u Srbiji, negativnu stopu prinosa ostvaruju svi članovi koji su tek počeli sa uplatama zbog plaćanja naknade koja ulazi u obračun prinosa.
 
 
Konkurencija smanjuje naknade
Prema izveštaju NBS, jačanje konkurencije na tržištu DPF dovelo je do snižavanja naknada koje se naplaćuju prilikom uplate doprinosa. Prema propisima društva za upravljanje fondovima imaju pravo da naplate do tri odsto od vrednosti uplate, ali prosek u drugom kvartalu je nešto niži i iznosi 2,46 odsto. Drugu naknadu, za upravljanje fondom koja može biti do dva odsto, sva društva naplaćuju u maksimalnom iznosu.

Društva su u drugom kvartalu ukupno naplatila 41,65 miliona dinara, a najveći deo se odnosi na naknade za upravljanje fondom, koje su naplaćene 27,48 miliona dinara.


Pad BDP u Srbiji 4,8 odsto

Srbija će u 2009. godini zabeležiti pad bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) od 4,8 odsto, ocenili su analitičari italijanske bankarske grupacije Unikredit (UniCredit)


Prema navodima studije o uticaju svetske ekonomske krize na privredu i bankarstvo u centralnoj i istočnoj Evropi, u 2010. godini Srbiju očekuje usporavanje pada BDP-a na 0,7 odsto, dok bi u 2011. godini trabalo da bude zabeležen rast od 1,3 odsto.
Ekonomisti Unikredit banke, koja posluje i u Srbiji, ocenili su da se vide pozitivni signali koji daju nadu za oporavak svetske privrede, što će pogurati i oporavak u srednjoj i istočnoj Evropi. Nakon značajnog smanjenja ekonomskih aktivnosti u 2009. godini, sa padom BDP-a od 5,5 odsto u centralnoj i istočnoj Evropi, naveli su, u regionu se očekuje rast BDP-a od 1,1 odsto u 2010. godini.
- To je pozitivan signal, ali je taj rast ipak ispod potencijala regiona centralne i istočne Evrope - naveli su analitičari Unikredit banke i dodali da se očekuju značajno različiti rezultati privreda pojedinih zemalja regiona.
Prema očekivanjima analitičara, Poljska će jedina među 17 država centralne i istočne Evrope zabeležiti rast BDP-a u ovoj godini i to na nivou od 1,4 odsto, a najveći pad, između 12,5 i 15 odsto zabeležiće baltičke zemlje i Ukrajina. Ekonomisti Unikredit banke su ocenili da će u 2011. godini rast zabeležiti sve zemlje centalne i istočne Evrope, uz porast BDP-a regiona od 3,5 odsto.



Nemački rast popravlja i Srbiju

Vest da su Nemačka i Francuska u drugom tromesečju ove godine izašle iz recesije i ostvarile privredni rast od 0,3 odsto podstakla je ocene da je globalna ekonomska kriza izgleda napokon dotakla dno i da sada predstoji samo rast, ali što je za Srbiju još bitnije, da će ovakav preokret imati pozitivne efekte i na naše tržište. Stručnjaci smatraju da će ozdravljenje evropskih privreda uticati na povećanje domaćeg izvoza i da bi do poboljšanja ekonomske klime moglo da dođe već početkom naredne godine, odnosno znatno brže u odnosu na ranije prognoze


Miroslav Zdravković, urednik sajta ekonomija.org, upozorava da ne bi trebalo tvrditi da je došao kraj recesiji, iako su podaci o privrednom rastu u Nemačkoj i Francuskoj realni. Prema njegovim rečima, ove informacije znače da je dostignuta najniža tačka, od koje sada kreće oporavak.

- Tvrditi da je ovo izlaz iz krize je daleko od razuma, naročito pošto se u Zapadnoj Evropi najavljuju dalja otpuštanja. Međutim, Kina beleži rast, a u Americi se već dva meseca povećava izvoz, tako da ima pomaka nabolje. Što se tiče izgleda za Srbiju, ne delim pesimizam prisutan kod mnogih analitičara. Kako smo promptno upali u krizu tako ćemo brzo i da izađemo iz nje - tvrdi Zdravković.

Koliko brzo, zavisi od toga kojim tempom će rasti trgovina, objašnjava naš sagovornik. Kao primer, Zdravković navodi poljoprivredu, koja će zbog dobre godine ostvariti rekordan rast i to ne samo u Srbiji već i globalno. To je već dovelo do toga da su cene žitarica u junu pale za 10 odsto, što će se, prema njegovim rečima, nastaviti i dalje, ali će zato „krajem ove i početkom naredne godine u Srbiji doći do rasta poljoprivredne i industrijske proizvodnje“.

- Ipak, i dalje je negativno to što imamo pad industrijske proizvodnje od 25 odsto, što će sigurno još godinu dana vući pad nezaposlenosti - dodaje Zdravković.

Ekonomista Goran Nikolić iz Instituta za evropske studije još direktnije vezuje najnovije podatke o rastu u Evropi sa domaćom perspektivom. Prema njegovim rečima, za Srbiju je posebno bitan oporavak u Nemačkoj, jer znači povećanu uvoznu tražnju u toj državi, što može da poboljša naš izvoz, budući da Srbija i Nemačka imaju visoku međusobnu trgovinsku razmenu.

- Bitno je i lagano odmrzavanje kreditnog tržišta u Evropi, koje može da oživi prekogranične kredite, a koje su i prethodnih godina u velikoj meri uzimale domaće kompanije. Takođe, to potencijalno može da poveća i nivo stranih investicija u Srbiji, pošto investitori svoja ulaganja finansiraju zaduživanjem na evropskom kreditnom tržištu - objašnjava Nikolić.

Prema njegovim rečima, posle najnovijih znakova oporavka u dve najveće ekonomije Evropske unije, realno je očekivati da će od sada u njima prestati negativne stope rasta. Pri tom, Francuska je, kako kaže, podigla tražnju i pomogla preduzećima stimulativnim merama, dok je Nemačka rast ostvarila zahvaljujući povećanju izvoza od sedam odsto u drugom tromesečju ove godine. Nikolić dodaje i da je u Americi, po svemu sudeći, najgore prošlo, pa se sada za 2009. prognozira optimističniji pad privredne aktivnosti od 1,5 odsto u odnosu na ranije prognoziranih 2,7 odsto.



Bolje od januara

Goran Nikolić iz Instituta za evropske studije ističe da pozitivni pomaci Beogradske berze tokom prethodnog meseca signaliziraju da bi do oporavaka realnog sektora privrede moglo da dođe u januaru naredne godine.

- Oporavak na početku sledeće godine, mada sa vrlo niske baze, očekuje se u izvozu, uvozu, telekomunikacijama, nekretninama, građevinarstvu i finansijskom sektoru, što bi uz pad poreskih prihoda ipak omogućilo blagi rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda - kaže Nikolić.



“Other Side of Serbia” promotes underdeveloped areas
Serbian Minister without Portfolio and Director of the Office for Sustainable Development of Underdeveloped Areas Sulejman Ugljanin signed today an agreement with the representatives of 43 underdeveloped municipalities in Serbia contained within the “Other Side of Serbia” project.



Photo: Fonet

Ugljanin told a press conference that the project is worth over RSD 20 million.

He announced the filming of broadcast material on each of the 43 municipalities, which will later be shown on TV.

A memorandum on cooperation between the Office and the municipality of Tutin was also signed today. Under this agreement, the Office will finance the making of a feasibility study for the construction of an industrial zone in Tutin.


Minister Mrkonjic: Construction of 20,000 apartments to begin in March 2010
Serbian Infrastructure Minister Milutin Mrkonjic on Aug. 14 announced that the construction of 20,000 apartments in Belgrade suburbs should begin in March 2010, and that the price will be optimal for most citizens.

"The government commission preparing the material regarding the mass construction will meet with the government at the beginning of September," Mrkonjic told the press after meeting the representatives of several local construction companies in the government.

The government will support the project by providing subsidized mortgages, and the minister said that "all the citizens" will be able to register for the apartments.

According to him, the price of a square meter will be reduced to the level of the citizens' financial solvency, so instead of paying for rent, they can pay the mortgage installments.

Mrkonjic did not name the potential price per square meter of the apartments, but he said that at the beginning they would be constructed in Belgrade suburbs, where the price of a square meter ranges between EUR500 and 600.

He assessed that the construction of 20,000 to 30,000 apartments would cost around EUR500 to 600 million, and that around 100,000 workers could be employed during the year of the project's realization.

Serbian Chamber of Commerce President Milan Jankovic said that local self-governments could support the project if they issued building licenses on time.


CPI inflation edges up to 8.5% y/y in July
Inflation in Serbia, measured by the index of consumer prices, reached six percent in the first seven months of the year, and prices in July were reduced by 0.9%, the Republic Bureau of Statistics has announced.

Inter-annual inflation in July reached 8.5%, the report said. The biggest price growth of one percent was recorded in the groups of furniture, household goods, day-to-day maintenance. Clothing and footwear prices increased by 0.9%, rent, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel prices increased also by 0.9 percent, restaurants and hotels raised their prices by 0.8%, and prices in the group of recreation and culture increased by 0.6%. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped by 3.2%.

There were no essential changes in the prices of other products and services.

The index of consumer prices presents a special index of retail prices and it is calculated according to a methodology coordinated with the European Union (EU) recommendations for determining the index of retail prices.


Sreckovic: Diaspora sends USD 14 million a day
Three million Serbs living in foreign countries send an average of USD 14 million to Serbia each day, as informed by Serbian Minister for Diaspora Srdjan Sreckovic.

Sreckovic says that Serbia can expect as much as USD 500 billion in foreign remittance by the end of 2009.

Since 2000, Serbian Diaspora has invested more than USD 500 million in our companies which employ more than 20,000 people, Sreckovic informs.

Serbian Ministry of Diaspora is going to propose new acts which would facilitate voting for Serbian voters in foreign countries.


China to build bridge over Danube
The Belgrade media remind that during the upcoming official visit of Serbian President Boris Tadic to China from August 20 to 25, the agreement on cooperation in infrastructural projects will be signed between the two governments with one of the first projects being the construction of the bridge over the Danube River which is to link Borca and Zemun, the two areas of Belgrade.

As announced, China is willing to offer a favorable loan to Serbia, while the business is to be taken care of by a Chinese company. The works are to commence in late 2010 to last 30-36 months.

The Chinese have already offered three solutions for the Danube bridge, which is to be 1.5 km long, while the entire length of the accompanying roads will be 21 km.

The investment is worth some 200 million Euros. As officially announced, Tadic will discuss bilateral cooperation, in particular economic issues, with officials of one of the biggest economic powers in the world.


Commerce Chamber Head - Serbia Should Ease Tax Burden To Bolster Economy
Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce will propose to the government in Belgrade to cut value added tax (VAT), lower salary tax to 50% from the current 63% and reduce profit tax to 8.0% from the current 10% in a bid to stimulate economic activity, the organisation's head, Milos Bugarin, said on Friday.

"We are supposed to talk to officials from Prime Minister [Mirko] Cvetkovic’s cabinet over the next couple of days to arrange a meeting next week,” Bugarin told.

Reducing the tax burden on salaries would prompt more companies to come into the open as no one likes doing business on the sly, always fearing an inspection by the authorities, he added.

The number of companies pushed into illegal practices will climb if the government presses on with plans to raise VAT, currently at 18%, in a bid to narrow its budget gap as part of its talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bugarin also said.


“The price of all goods and services would go up, fuelling inflation. The economy would simply not be able to hold up,” he also said.

“We would be extremely happy if VAT were to change if only by the slightest of margins, but we will be content if it were to remain flat. A tax hike would weigh down liquidity, companies will flounder, shift into illegal operations and simply die out,” Bugarin said.

Serbia’s Finance Minister Diana Dragutinovic said last month that the measures aimed at containing the country's budget deficit may include changes to the VAT and income tax rates. She also said that the Balkan country is likely to end 2009 with a fiscal deficit equivalent to 4.5% of the projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP), overshooting the 3.0% limit agreed with the IMF earlier.

The government in Belgrade signed a two-year 3.0 billion euro ($4.3 billion) loan deal with the IMF in March. A mission of IMF experts is scheduled to arrive in Serbia’s capital later this month for the second revision of the stand-by arrangement.


Foreign reserves rise 3%m/m to EUR 9.2bn at end July
Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves rose by 2.9% month-on-month to 9.9 billion euro ($14.1 billion) in July, the central bank, NBS, said on Friday.

Reserves rose as NBS received 199.5 million euro in mandatory reserves payments by local commercial banks and a combined 49.8 million euro in credits from the European Investment Bank and the World Bank, NBS said in a statement.


Serbia's foreign exchange reserves totalled 9.616 billion euro at the end of June this year and 9.693 billion euro at the end of July 2008.

Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves (in billions of euro):

End-July End-June
TOTAL 9.900 9.616
Central bank 9.184 8.884
Commercial banks 0.716 0.731


Going Public Only Short-Term Solution
The transfer of companies to state-owned enterprises is justified only if we are talking about short-term solution, until the end of the downturn – the state should not be a long-term employer, stated the former Minister of Economy and Privatization Aleksandar Vlahovic. “I can only say that the idea to turn all companies which did not privatize well into state-owned enterprises is not a sustainable solution and it is a move contrary to building a market economy,” said Vlahovic to Tanjug news agency. Vlahovic, a DS’s MP in the Serbian Parliament, says that if this move only represents a postponement in privatization process until the crisis pass, than it has a point. “We can hardly expect to have a lot of investors for buying companies during the downturn,” said he stressing that the permanent survival of the state as a majority owner is contrary to the defined goals of constructing a market economy. “The state should remain owner in certain segments where it is necessary in order to protect the operations of companies inn certain segments,” added Vlahovic. When asked whether the state is able to offer any financial support to those companies Vlahovic said that he believed the state to be incapable of offering such help at the moment.


UniCredit Bank: Serbian GDP Slides by 4.8%

In 2009, Serbia is to record a decline in GDP equaling 4.8%, estimated the analytics at Italian UniCredit Group. According to the study on the influence of the global downturn on the economy and banking sector of Central and Eastern European Countries, Serbia’s GDP slide should slow down by 0.7% in 2010, while the country’s economy should record an expansion at 1.3% in 2011.

UniCredit’s economists see positive signals providing hope in recovery of global economy, which will, consequently, push towards recovery in CEE sector. After a significant slowdown in economic activities this year and with a GDP fall at 5.5% CEE region should, according to expectations, record a GDP growth of 1.1% in 2010.



Textile Companies from Sumadija Establish a Cluster

The producers of textile in Kragujevac registered a cluster Sumadija Tekstil in order to find a quicker way to conquer foreign market and strengthen position on the domestic market. Textile companies say that the hope to fight the ever growing gray market of low-quality and cheap goods much easier if they join forces. The goal of members of this cluster is to gather producers of children’s clothes and other products intended for children. Over 200 producers of textile, which employ over 1,000 workers, are registered in Sumadija and Pomoravlje regions.



Majority owner Gazprom offers EUR 96 per share in oil company NIS
CEO of the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), Kirill Kravchenko, said on Sunday that the company was ready to pay small shareholders for their shares in the company, and added that that the price would not be any lower than that which had been paid during the privatization of the company, i.e. EUR 96, as envisaged in the contract with shareholders; he added that the management would try to increase the price. NIS CEO Kirill Kravchenko said that all of the auditing reports on how the company did financially in 2008 will be finished by early November. The report will be sent to the National Bank of Serbia, by December 1, after the NIS board of directors approves it.


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