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Kurs stabilan i tokom jeseni

Ako je suditi prema procenama stručnjaka, manje-više stabilan kurs tokom letnjih meseci možemo očekivati i tokom jeseni. Naime, prosečan kurs je tokom ovog leta iznosio 93,38 dinara, a mala je šansa da se nešto menja u narednom periodu, smatraju ekonomisti

- Kurs je poslednja dva meseca manje-više stabilan i verovatno će takav ostati i tokom jeseni. Naime, male su šanse da dođe do neke dramatične promene. Jedino što bi moglo da utiče na kurs jesu završeni pregovori sa MMF-om, ali to će biti pre psihološke promene. U svakom slučaju, to ćemo saznati tokom ove nedelje - objasnio je Goran Nikolić, stručni saradnik u PK Srbije.
Prema njegovim rečima ne treba zaboraviti da je kurs makroekonomsko sidro i da je zbog toga bitno da bude stabilan. Svaka njegovo obaranje bilo bi dramatično za privredu koja je trenutno u lošem stanju i koja vraća kredite, zbog čega bi svaka promena kursa mogla da je odvede u bankrotstvo, smatra Nikolić.
Za razliku od letnjeg proseka ove godine, dinar je prošle godine u isto vreme bio u proseku jači za 19 odsto, sa prosečnim kursom od 74,48 dinara za evro. Samo godinu pre toga vrednost domaće valute bila je jača za 15,8 odsto u odnosu na leto ove godine, a građani su u proseku jedan evro plaćali 80,65 odsto. I tokom leta 2006. godine prosečna vrednost dinara je bila za 10,6 odsto jača nego ove godine (84,45 dinara za evro), a tokom leta 2005. godine građani su za jedan evro dobijali 83,14 dinara ili 12,3 odsto više nego danas.
- Vrednost valute nije pala samo u našoj zemlji već i u zemljama u regionu sa sličnom ekonomijom. Na primer, pala je vrednost i češke krune, mađarske forinte, rumunskog leva i slično. Neke valute su pale manje, neke više, ali zajedničko im je to da su se sve stabilizovale negde u februaru ove godine - rekao je Nikolić i dodao da jedine valute koje nisu izgubile mnogo na vrednosti jesu hrvatska kuna i makedonski denar.
Prema podacima Narodne banke Srbije, u drugom tromesečju 2009. godine vrednost dinara nominalno je porasla u odnosu na sve vodeće svetske valute, osim u odnosu na britansku funtu. U poređenju s krajem prvog tromesečja, dinar je nominalno apresirao 1,4 odsto prema evru i 8,1 odsto prema dolaru.



Energoprojekt ugovorio nove poslove u inostranstvu

Preduzeća iz sastava Holdinga Energoprojekt ugovorila su nove poslove u inostranstvu ukupne vrednosti 9,4 miliona dolara, objavila je ta beogradska firma na sajtu Beogradske berze

Energoprojekt Entel je zaključio ugovor od 4,9 miliona dolara u Dubaiju za konsultantske usluge za ugradnju serijskih reaktora u prenosnu mrežu od 400 KV.

To je prvi projekat ugradnje takve opreme u Ujedinjenim Arapskim Emiratima, tako i zemljama Persijskog zaliva.

Rok za realizaciju projekta je 25 meseci, a investitor je Služba Dubaija za struju i vodu (Dubai Electricity and Water Authority).

Holding je saopštio i da je Energoprojekt Hidroinženjering, u svojstvu konsultanta konzorcijuma francuskih firmi Koin Belie i Safaž, zaključio ugovor u Alžiru od 2,7 miliona dolara.

Ugovor se odnosi na konsultantske usluge za realizaciju vodoprivrednog sistema koji obuhvata tri brane i dve regionalne mreže cevovoda. Rok za realizaciju projekta je 60 meseci.

U Peruu je Energoprojekt Hidroinženjering, u svojstvu konsultanta nemačke firme Lamajer, zaključio ugovor vrednosti 1,8 miliona dolara za nadzor nad izvođenjem druge faze rekonstrukcije hidroelektrane Maču Pikču. Taj projekat treba da bude završen za 40 meseci.



Trezorci možda i na berzi

Uprava za trezor Ministarstva finansija počela je sa emitovanjem jednogodišnjih državnih zapisa, a u skoro bi ovim obveznicama moglo da se trguje i na Beogradskoj berzi. Na prvoj aukciji prodati su svi ponuđeni zapisi u vrednosti od jedne milijarde dinara, po kamatnoj stopi od 12,5 odsto, a početkom sledeće godine možemo očekivati i pojavu trogodišnjih državnih hartija od vrednosti, najavio je Ivan Maričić, direktor Uprave


- Morali smo da pustimo ročno restrukturiranje emisija na finansijskom tržištu, te smo prvo krenuli sa kratkoročnim obveznicama. Kako sada počinjemo sa emitovanjem dugoročnih hartija, prvo smo krenuli sa jednogodišnjim, a početkom sledeće godine planiramo emitovanje zapisa sa rokom dospeća i do tri godine - rekao je Maričić.
Kako Uprava za trezor već organizuje i prodaju tromesečnih i šestomesečnih zapisa ukupne vrednosti i do sedam milijardi dinara, vrednost zapisa prve aukcije je relativno mala, međutim Maričić kaže da će se vremenom, u zavisnosti od tržišta, vrednost povećavati.
- Morali smo da počnemo sa relativno malom vrednošću da bi videli kako će tržište da reaguje, a u zavisnosti od rashoda, budžeta i tržišta povećaćemo iznose emitovanih hartija - potvrdio je on i dodao da očekuje zainteresovanost za ovim hartijama jer kamatna stopa od 12,5 odsto predstavlja dovoljan pokazatelj da inflacija ove godine neće ići iznad 10 odsto.
Ovako prikupljen novac služi za finansiranje budžetskog deficita, a emitovanjem jednogodišnjih državnih zapisa nastavlja se sa izgradnjom srednjoročne i dugoročne strategije nastupa države na domaćem finansijskom tržištu, a u narednih nekoliko meseci razmotriće se mogućnost plasiranja državnih hartija od vrednosti i na sekundarno tržište.
- U sklopu svih mera unapređenja finansijskog tržišta razmatramo i mogućnost plasiranja ovih državnih zapisa na sekundarno tržište, a da li će to biti berza ili neko informaciono tržište videćemo. U narednih nekoliko meseci donećemo odluku o tome, ali prvo treba da se utvrde procedure i izrade softverska rešenja - rekao je Maričić.
Milan Kovač, portfolio menadžer DUIF "Ilirika" smatra da bi pojava državnih hartija svakako bila interesantna pojava na Beogradskoj berzi.
- Pozitivna i korisna ideja, s jedne strane bi se pojavio nov instrument na tržištu, a s druge strane bi se obezbedila fleksibilnost, jer postojanjem sekundarnog tržišta u svakom trenutku te hartije mogu da se kupe ili prodaju - kaže Kovač i dodaje da bi zainteresovani svakako bili novčani fondovi, penzioni fondovi i svako ko već ulaže u takvu vrstu hartija.



Polugodišnji rezultati Alfa plama oko planiranih

Alfa plam (ALFA) je u prvih šest meseci ove godine imao poslovni prihod od 1,38 milijardi dinara, a rashod 1,28 milijardi, objavilo je to preduzeće iz Vranja na sajtu Beogradske berze


Dobit je u prvom ovogodišnjem polugodištu bila 132,5 miliona dinara.

Za prvo polugođe Alfa plam je planirao prihod od 1,36 milijardi dinara, rashod od 1,22 milijarde i dobit od 142 miliona.

Za 12 meseci prošle godine Alfa je ostvarila prihod od 3,39 milijardi dinara i neto dobit od 353,34 miliona.

Alfa plam izvozi u druge republike bivše Jugoslavije, Bugarsku, Albaniju, Italiju, Rusiju i Mađarsku. Sve je veće interesovanje za Alfinim proizvodima i u Zapadnoj Evropi. Prošlogodišnji izvoz doneo je 23,53 miliona evra, 13 odsto više nego 2007. godine.

Akcije Alfa plama su od novembra prošle godine na B Listingu Beogradske berze.

Sada koštaju 8.640 dinara. Njihovca najveća cena u proteklih 12 meseci je bila 8.650 dinara - avgusta 2009, a namanja 4.820 dinara - decembra prošle godine.

Tržišna kapitalizacija Alfa plama je oko 1,37 milijardi dinara.



Negotiations with the IMF on 2010 Budget
Serbian authorities continue negotiations with the representatives of the International Monetary Fund. Today and tomorrow, Serbia and the IMF delegation are to discuss Serbian budget for 2010. IMF Mission has been visiting Belgrade since last Monday and the working visit will be completed in Wednesday. During the negotiations on the revision of the stand-by arrangement signed with the IMF, the Serbian government has already managed to keep Serbia from tax hike, as well as to keep wages and pensions unchanged. The IMF is also to allow budget deficit to reach 4.5%. When it comes to 2010, it is not uncommon to hear unofficial statements that Serbia will have to increase VAT next year. The IMF delegation believes this to be the best and the most efficient solution which can be implemented swiftly. This international financial institution also expects Serbia to implement structural reform next year in order to have a budget deficit lower than 4.5% and lower payment and balance deficit in the years to come. The talks with IMF also included recommendations for saving opportunities on all levels in the state. IMF could, also, approve to Serbia a very favorable loan amounting to USD 500 million, and a significantly higher loan by the end of the year which will be used for covering budget deficit in 2009 and 2010.


Iskon Oil Production Starts Today

As of today, Victoria Oil from Sid is operating with full capacity. This means that the company’s production lines are to produce 14,000 liters of oil every hour, and the annual production is to exceed the demand on domestic market.

Although the trial production started last week, the interest of merchants is pretty intense because the oil’s production price amounts to RSD 70 per liter. Natalija Kurjak, Victoria Group’s marketing director, stresses that there is an increase in demand for evegatble oil, as well as that the entire production volume is sold right away, which is no surprise if we have in mind that the oil is sold at the price RSD 40 lower than usually.

Victoria Oil plans to export vegetable oil to surrounding markets. When asked whether the cheaper oil will decrease the prices of other producers, Natalija Kurjak said that it was “the market game”. The first response of the market has already surprised consumers who will be able to buy Sunce vegetable oil from Sombor at the price of RSD 89 per liter at all Maxi stores.



Gas-Powered Punto Cars as of September

After Kragujevac-based Zastava started producing Puntos with gasoline and diesel engines, it plans to start producing this Fiat’s model with gas engines next month. Zastava’s car factory finally completed the refurbishing of facilities, and the company is currently installing equipment for the production of Punto whose engine will use liquefied and oil gas. The equipment for the production of gas-fueled Punto in currently being installed in Carroserie and Assembling departments and the production of this vehicle is to start in September, when 2,200 Puntos are to leave production and assemblage lines at this car factory. By the end of September, production equipment at the car factory and its employees are to produce the announced 200 vehicles per day, i.e. 4,000 per month.



Citizens Borrowed RSD 377 Bn
The total amount of loans approved to the citizens of Serbia reached RSD 377 bn at the end of July, which is down by 0.5 pct against June, Serbian Credit Bureau said. According to its data, the ratio between cash loans approved to the retail sector has been continuously declining since the beginning of the year. In July, it stood at RSD 110 bn, which is down by 3 pct than at the end of 2008, and 2.3 pct less than in June 2009. In July, consumer loans were by 3.8 pct higher than in June and by 11 pct higher than at the end of 2008, since they reached the amount of RSD 23.5 bn. Refinancing loans recorded a 20 pct decline against the end of 2008, and a 5 pct growth against June and total RSD 21 bn. Citizens’ debts pertaining to housing loans equaled RSD 207 bn in July, which is by 0.7 pct less than in June, and 22 pct more than at the end of 2008, when they topped RSD 170 bn.


New Railway On Corridor 10 Costs EUR 4.6 Bn
Serbia needs some EUR 4.6bn to modernize 770 kilometers of the Corridor 10 railroad, Serbian Railways General Director Milovan Markovic says. "The reconstruction and modernization of that part means modern two-track railroads for mixed passenger and freight traffic, with projected speeds of 160 to 200 kmph," he told Beta news agency. The first phase of the reconstruction, expected to take four years, will require an investment of EUR 1.1bn. “This doesn’t mean that after the first phase all sections will be capable of developing speeds higher than 160 km/h, but that all sections are functioning properly and that we won’t have any troubles and a need for extremely low train speed”, he said. Markovic added that during the first phase safety devices will be repaired, and they will be more functional and modern than the current ones and there will be less train delay on the railway than before. The construction of the second phase, he said, should begin in 2013, and completion of works is envisaged for 2016. So far, Serbian Railways used EIB, EBRD and WB funds for the reconstruction of infrastructure, he said.


Zastava Oruzje Ready for Iraq Deal
We are ready for the new deal with Iraq, but we still don’t know our share in the profit and whether we will participate in the venture. What we can do is believe to Minister Sutanovac who said that all 6 domestic military factories will operate with full capacity, which means that Kragujevac-based arms producers will also have a share in the new export arrangement with Iraq – said the reps of Zastava Oruzje to Danas daily yesterday. In the previous venture agreed between the Ministry of Defense and Iraq’s defense forces, worth approx. USD 235 million, the Kragujevac-based arms producer delivered 18,000 pistols CZ99 (worth approx. RSD 200 million), as well as machineguns worth USD 5.5 million.


Excessive Spending in Mining Basin Kolubara
The new GM of mining basin Kolubara, Nebojsa Ceran, stated that the expenses for the lease of additional mechanization will be 4-5 times lower in August against the previous period. In an interview for the latest issue of the company’s bulletin, Ceran stated that the lease will amount to RSD 80 million per month, and declined to comment on information that the last year’s lease of mechanization cost RSD 4.232 billion.


Insurer Dunav Osiguranje Mulls Expansion in Bosnia, Wider Region
Serbian majority state-owned insurer Dunav Osiguranje plans to expand its operations across the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as to other countries in the region.

Dunav Osiguranje intends to return to the Bosnian market with initial focus on corporate clients in major cities and plans to offer retail services at a later stage, Rajko Tepavac, a member of the company’s executive board said.

The fight for the Bosnian market will not be easy as competition, from western European companies especially, is fierce, Tepavac also said.

He added that Dunav Osiguranje will also focus on expanding to former Yugoslav republics and neighbouring markets, some of whom are already part of the European Union.


The Serbian insurer bought 59.47% of its Bosnian peer Kosig in 2006 and is now completing the third investment tranche in the company, totalling 8.34 million marka (4.3 million euro), Tepavac said. Other shareholders include local private and state-owned companies.

“Kosig Dunav Osiguranje is a leading insurer in the Serb Republic, with plans to sustain its 20% market share in the province by the end of the year,” b92 quoted Kosig’s General Director Gruja Komljenovic as saying.

Kosig Dunav Osiguranje is based in Banja Luka, the administrative centre of the Serb Republic, which together with the Muslim-Croat Federation forms post-war Bosnia.

Non-life insurance makes up about 95% of Kosig Dunav Osiguranje’s business in the Serb Republic, while life insurance accounts for the balance, Komljenovic said.


Energoprojekt Units Sign Deals Worth Total EUR 6.6m in Peru, Algeria and UAE
Serbian blue-chip engineering holding company Energoprojekt said on Friday its hydro power consulting unit has signed two deals worth a combined 3.2 million euro ($4.6 million) in Peru and Algeria while its thermal power and telecoms consulting unit has clinched a 3.4 million euro deal in the United Arab Emirates.

Energoprojekt Hidroinzenjering Consulting Engineers (www.ephydro.com) signed earlier this month a $1.8 million (1.3 million euro) contract for the supervision of the second phase of the upgrade of the 105 megawatt Machu Picchu hydroelectric power plant in Peru's Cusco region, about 1,300 kilometres east of the capital Lima, the parent company said in a statement to the Belgrade bourse, BELEX, on Friday.

The completion period is 40 months, the statement said.

In July, Energoprojekt's hydro power consulting unit, acting as a consultant to a consortium of French companies Coyne & Bellier and Safege, signed a 1.9 million euro contract to provide advisory servics on the Setif high plains water transfer project in Algeria, the parent company said in a separate statement to the BELEX on Friday.


The project includes three dams - Dra Dis, Tabelout and Mahuan, and two regional piping systems and should be completed in 60 months, the statement said.

Energoprojekt Entel Consulting Engineers (www.ep-entel.com) signed earlier in August a $4.9 million contract in Dubai to provide advisory services for the installation of 400kV Series Reactor Stations at Generating Stations with 400kV OHL Modification, the parent company said in a third statement to the BELEX on Friday.

The investor in the project, due for completion in 25 months, is the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, the statement said.


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