Beograd -- Narodna banka Srbije procenila je da će na kraju ove i početkom naredne godine inflacija biti oko pet odsto, dok će rast BDP-a biti oko 1,5 odsto.

Viceguverner NBS-a Bojan Marković kazao je da je inflacija u aprilu bila 0,6 odsto, dok je rast cena od aprila 2009. do aprila 2010. godine bio 4,3 odsto.

Tokom drugog tromesečja očekuje se dalji pad inflacije dok će se do kraja godine biti na projektovanom nivou od šest plus/minus dva odsto. Inflacija će 2011. godine, prema projekcijama NBS-a, biti oko 4,5 odsto.

Viceguverner je kazao da su ključni rizici kada je inflacija u pitanju premija rizika i prenosni efekat deviznog kursa na cene, brzina ekonomskog oporavka i rizik vezan za rast cena hrane, odnosno kakva će biti poljoprivredna sezona.

Prema rečima Markovića, ove godine se očekuje skroman rast BDP-a od 1,5 odsto zbog sporog izlaska svetske privrede iz recesije i niske domaće tražnje. "Procenjujemo da će rast investicija i neto izvoz dati najveći doprinos rastu BDP-a u narednom periodu. Javna i lična potršnja će se i dalje smanjivati", kazao je on.

U prvom tromesečju je prvi put od početka krize zabeležen rast BDP-a od jedan odsto u odnosu na isti period prošle godine. Rastu BDP-a najviše je doprineo rast neto izvoza od 13,9 odsto i smanjenje uvoza za 4,8 odsto. NBS je procenila i da se značajan oporavak ekonomske aktivnosti može očekivati 2011, kada je projektovano da BDP poraste tri odsto.

Viceguverner je podsetio da je za ovu godinu planiran budžetski deficit od četiri odsto BDP-a, dok se u narednom periodu očekuje njegovo postepeno smanjenje, do 2,4 odsto u 2012. godini.

Najveći rizik povećanje plata

Najveći rizik za ostvarenje planiranog budžetskog deficita jeste moguće povećanje plata i penzija od oktobra, pa bi recimo rast plata i penzija od šest procenata povećao deficit za 0,38 odsto BDP-a, ukazao je Marković.

Prema njegovim rečima, rast BDP-a u ovoj godini zasnivaće se na povećanju izvoza, čiji doprinos će biti 1,7 procentnih poena, i oporavku investicija, vodjenim kapitalnim ulaganjima države, sa doprinosom od 0,9 procentnih poena, dok će kretanje potrošnje negativno uticati na BDP.

Rast BDP-a se najvećim delom duguje niskoj osnovi iz prošle godine, ukazao je viceguverner ističući da je važan uticaj imala javna potrošnja, koja u prvom tromesečju beleži značajno povećanje.

Pošto su plate u javnom sektoru zamrznute, povećanje javne potrošnje je kratkotrajnog karaktera, rekao je Marković i napomenuo da je budžetom za 2010. godinu predvidjen nominalni rast vrednosti nabavki roba i usluga od 10 odsto, koji je u velikoj meri iscrpljen u prvom tromesečju.

Rast u prvom kvartalu ostvaren je i zahvaljujući rastu izvoza, pošto desezonirani podaci pokazuju da je u tom periodu zabeležen blagi rast izvoza, dok je uvoz mirovao, naveo je on.

Marković je napomenuo i da je platnobilansni deficit Srbije u prvom tromesečju iznosio 10,5 odsto BDP-a, a do kraja ove godine procenjuje se da će biti oko 8,5 procenata BDP-a.

Beograd -- Do kraja maja ili u prvoj nedelji juna biće doneta odluka o uslovima pod kojima će Telenor moći da koristi telekomunikacionu infrastrukturu Telekoma Srbije.

Republička agencija za telekomunikacije je saopštila da bi na narednoj sednici trebalo da donese odluke i da se onda operatori izjasne o tome.

Kako je ranije izjavila ministarka za telekomunikacije Jasna Matić pregovori Telekoma i Telenora su trajali neko vreme i obe kompanije zaključile su da se ne mogu dogovoriti, pa bi odluku trebalo da donese RATEL.

Kompanija Telenor, koja već pruža usluge mobilne telefonije u Srbiji, dobila je polovinom februara i licencu za fiksnu telefoniju, čime je ukinut monopol državne kompanije Telekoma Srbije.

Prema uslovima licence koju je Telenor platio milion evra, rok za početak pružanja usluga fiksne telefonije i ADSL intereneta je 12 meseci.

Beograd -- Novosadska Metals banka zvanično je promenila ima u Razvojnu banku Vojvodine, izjavio je predsednik Izvršnog odbora te banke Srđan Petrović.

Ta banka, koja rešenjem APR-a posluje pod novim imenom, sada će veći značaj pridavati finansiranju razvojnih i infrastrukturnih projekata u Vojvodini.

NBS je u oktobru 2008. godine uvela prinudnu upravu u Metals banku zbog lošeg finansijskog stanja prouzrokovanog krizom likvidnosti, koja je pogoršana u vreme dok je banka bila pod korektivnim merama centralne banke.

Izvršno veće Vojvodine donelo je odluku da po okončaju privremenih mera Metals banka postane Razvojna banka pokrajine i ta banka je od jula 2009. godine u većinskom vlašništvu Vlade Vojvodine, koja ima 61,9 odsto akcija banke.

Banka se 18. marta ove godine udružila sa fondovima čiji je osnivač Vlada Vojvodine, Fondom za razvoj i Garancijskim fondom Vojvodine, čime su stvoreni uslovi da banka u budućnosti obezbeđuje značajan finansijski podsticaj projektima od razvojnog značaja za Vojvodinu.

Beograd -- Srbija razmatra ponudu Bugarske da učestvuje u izgradnji nuklearne elektrane Belene, kaže srpski ministar energetike Petar Škundrić.

"Odluku nismo doneli, ali se pripremamo da je donesemo jer bi to bilo u interesu Srbije, zemalja regiona i Evropske unije", rekao je Škundrić.

On je kazao i da je sa partnerima u Kini razgovarao o mogućoj finansijskoj kreditnoj podršci Srbiji za učešće u projektu izgradnje nuklearke u Bugarskoj.

Ministar je ukazao da, ako bi Srbija odlučila da učestvuje u izgradnji nukelarke u Bugarskoj, time ne bi bila narušena zakonodavna obaveza koja se tiče moratorijuma o izgradnji nuklearke na teritoriji Srbije.

Škundrić je rekao da bi se Srbija time uvrstila u red zemalja koje su "ozbiljne, sposobne i odgovorne da mogu da učestvuju u takvom projektu".

Kako je podsetio, ponudu da Srbija učestvuje u izgradnji nuklearke u Bugarskoj izneo je bugarski predsednik Vlade Bojko Borisov u vreme posete Srbiji. Škundrić je naveo da bi se tim projektom uspostavila regionalna saradnja i partnerski odnosi Srbije i Bugarske.

EPS posredno u izgradnji nuklearke

Učešće Srbije u izgradnji nuklearne elektrane u Bugarskoj, omogućilo bi Elektroprivredi Srbije (EPS) da na posredan način, odnosno u uslovima važećeg moratorijuma za izgradnju nuklearke u Srbiji, "uđe u tu tehnologiju, koja nas čeka u budućnosti".

Generalni direktor EPS-a Dragomir Marković kaže da "postoji problem sredstava, jer EPS nema potencijal da značajno učestvuje u tom projektu". On je napomenuo da u trenutnoj situaciji treba sačekati da se vidi kako će se taj projekat realizovati i dodao da je još previše rano da se detaljnije govori o tome.

BELGRADE -- The value of Serbian telecommunications market is estimated at approximately EUR 10bn, while the total income in 2009 amounted to EUR 1.5bn.

This accounts for 4.8 percent of GDP, Republic Telecommunication Agency (RATEL) Executive Director Milan Janković said on Tuesday.

At a press conference presenting RATEL's work in the period from 2005 to 2010, Janković said that the number of landline clients in 2009 totaled 3.145.920, thus increasing by 42 percent.

According to Janković, the total number of mobile telephony users added up to 9.9 million, which represents a 132 percent rise, while the number of cable-distributive system clients increased by 13 percent, thus reaching almost one million.

Over 1.7 million people now use the Internet, which is 22 percent more than in 2005, Janković noted.

RATEL Managing Board President Jovan Radunović pointed out that Serbian mobile telecommunications in the past five years registered significant market opening and liberalization.

A total of seven telecommunication service licenses were issued over the past few years, the most important one being the second landline operator license, which was granted to the telecommunications company Telenor, thus preventing the state-owned telecommunications company Telekom Srbija from monopolizing the market.

“We have issued 199 Internet service provider licenses, 77 cable operator licenses, 44 Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP), and 137 television and 307 radio broadcasting licenses,” Radunović was quoted.

BELGRADE -- A commission set up to select an advisor for the sale of a part of the state’s shares in Telekom Srbija has not made its position on the only offer.

The offer from Citigroup Global Markets, came in a tender organized earlier.

Only the technical part of the bid was review, it has emerged, while the final assessment was left to the government.

According to the Finance Ministry, the commission has used a legal possibility not to announce the assessment but to pass it over to the government.

The tender was called on April 12, and investment banks that conducted at least one European, Middle East or Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) telecommunications transaction worth more than EUR 500mn in the past three years were eligible to participate.

The government owns 80 percent of the company’s shares while the remaining 20 percent are owned by Greek OTE, where Deutsche Telekom, which is mentioned as the likely buyer of Telekom Srbija shares, has a 30 stake.

It has been reported previously that the state would opt to sell 40 percent of its shares in Telekom.

BELGRADE -- The candidate for become new central bank’s new governor, Dejan Šoškić, commented on the recent drop in the dinar’s value.

Šoškić said that this did not come about as a consequence of “psychological effects”, but of the hard currency supply and demand in the market.

He said that a psychological factor would play a role if investors expected high inflation rates and a low level of foreign currency reserves, which would make it more difficult for the state to pay back its debts.

Šoškić said that none of those reasons exist in Serbia currently, since the inflation rate is under control.

“Inflation is under control will a tendency for further decreases, the level of foreign currency reserves is high and sufficient for Serbia, and the country has not yet crossed over into a dangerous level of indebtedness,” Šoškić said.

He added that the value of the euro at the RSD 100 level, should not be seen as a psychological limit, nor should another one be created.

“It is simply the price of the euro on the foreign currency market. Having the price of the euro exceed this level should not be seen as anything different from the last time the price increased,” Šoškić said, adding that he does not expect any significant changes on the foreign currency market in the coming period.

He said that in economic theory, psychology – the level of trust from investors, consumers and all other players on the market – can have a significant effect on the economy.

“Trust in the existing price level of products and services, interest rates, securities, currencies, and the security of income, can have effects on individual decisions of those participating in the market: investors, creditors, debtors, consumers, retailers…Therefore, the level of trust in the market participants can have an effect on the supply and demand,” Šoškić said.

“It is enough to see what is happening in retail and with the prices of some well-known international car manufacturers, who have recently lost high levels of trust with consumers. What is happening to the value of the euro on the international foreign currency market, with the prices of state debts of countries that have lost the trust of investors or with prices of property in attractive tourist destinations, it is completely clear that it leads to the conclusion that psychology can effect the level of prices,” Šoškić said.

BELGRADE -- Energy Minister Petar Škundrić says Serbia has not still made a decision regarding the participation in construction of a nuclear power plant in Bulgaria.

Speaking in Belgrade on Wednesday, he added that the talks on the issue were underway.

"The decision has not been made so far, but we are getting ready to do that since it would be in the interest of Serbia, regional and European countries," Škundrić stated at the fourth annual conference on energy organized by the Economist Media Group.

Škundrić said that during his recent visit to China, he conferred with representatives of the Chinese government on a financial arrangement and a credit support to Serbia's participation in the project.

He underscored that if Serbia decides to take part in the construction of the nuclear power plant in Bulgaria, it will violate the legal obligation concerning moratorium on nuclear power plant construction in the territory of Serbia.

Škundrić said that Serbia could become the regional leader in energy, if the most important projects in the sector were realized, adding that about nine billion euros should be invested in these projects in the following five to seven years.

One of the projects is the package arrangement that is intended for the Kostolac thermo-electric power plants and mining, the minister said, adding that he discussed the arrangement with the Chinese partners.

According to him, China should secure 85 percent of the arrangement's funds, while the total amount of the project is USD 1.25bn.