Izvršni odbor Narodne banke Srbije odlučio je danas da poveća referentnu kamatnu stopu za 25 baznih poena, na nivo od 5,75%. Stopa na depozitne olakšice zadržana je na nivou od 4,50%, dok je stopa na kreditne olakšice povećana na 7,00%, saopšteno je iz Kabineta guvernera.

- Globalni troškovni pritisci i uvozna inflacija i dalje su visoki i potrebno je ograničiti njihove indirektne efekte na rast cena na domaćem tržištu, koji se mogu prenositi putem inflacionih očekivanja, kao i uticati na deo pritisaka koji dolaze sa strane tražnje. Time Narodna banka Srbije doprinosi da se inflacija u Srbiji nađe na opadajućoj putanji i vrati u granice dozvoljenog odstupanja u horizontu projekcije - navodi se u objašnjenju odluke.

Dodaje se da prenošenje dosadašnjeg povećanja referentne kamatne stope na kamatne stope na tržištu novca, kredita i štednje ukazuje na efikasnost transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike putem kanala kamatne stope.

- Istovremeno, održavanjem relativne stabilnosti kursa dinara prema evru, Narodna banka Srbije znatno doprinosi ograničavanju efekata prelivanja rasta uvoznih cena na domaće cene, kao i ukupnoj makroekonomskoj stabilnosti u uslovima povećane globalne neizvesnosti - navodi NBS.

Izvršni odbor je naveo i da su pad svetskih cena energenata, kao i rešavanje zastoja u globalnim lancima snabdevanja i smanjenje troškova kontejnerskog transporta u velikoj meri doprineli slabljenju globalnih troškovnih pritisaka, što bi trebalo da ima uticaja i na usporavanje domaće inflacije u narednom periodu.

- Ipak, otvaranje Kine nakon popuštanja restriktivnih zdravstvenih mera moglo bi ubrzati globalnu ekonomsku aktivnost i povećati tražnju za energentima i primarnim proizvodima, što može usporiti proces smanjenja globalne inflacije, dok bi u suprotnom smeru delovalo veće od očekivanog zaoštravanje monetarnih politika centralnih banaka - dodaje se.

Inflacija u Srbiji je u januaru na mesečnom nivou iznosila 1,4%, a međugodišnje posmatrano 15,8%, a kada je u pitanju ekonomska aktivnost, prema aktuelnoj projekciji Narodne banke Srbije, bruto domaći proizvod Srbije ove godine ostvariće realni rast u rasponu od 2,0% do 3,0%, stoji u saopštenju.

At its meeting today, the NBS Executive Board voted to raise the key policy rate by 25 bp, to 5.75%. The deposit facility rate was kept at 4.50%, while the lending facility rate was raised to 7.0%, the governor’s cabinet announced.

– In its decision-making, the Board was guided by the persistently high global cost-push pressures and imported inflation, despite the signs of easing, as well as the necessity to contain their second-round effects on price growth at home through inflation expectations and to impact a part of demand-side pressures. The NBS thus helps inflation to strike a downward path and retreat within the target tolerance band until the end of the projection horizon – says the explanation of the decision.

It is added that the transmission of the rate increases so far to the rates in the markets of money, loans and savings signals the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism via the interest rate channel.

– Moreover, by maintaining the relative stability of the dinar against the euro, the NBS also significantly contributes to containing the spillover effect of rising import prices on domestic prices, and to overall macroeconomic stability amid elevated global uncertainty – the NBS says.

As stated by the Board, global cost-push pressures have weakened, mostly reflecting falling global energy prices, resolution of supply bottlenecks and reduced container shipping rates, which should lead to the slowing domestic inflation in the coming period.

– Still, China’s lifting of restrictive containment measures could speed up global economic activity and bolster demand for energy and other primary commodities, slowing the decline in global inflation, while greater-than-expected tightening of monetary policies by leading central banks would work in the opposite direction – it is added.

In January, inflation in Serbia measured 1.4% per month, and 15.8% y-o-y, in accordance with the Executive Board’s expectations. As regards economic activity, according to the NBS’s current projection, Serbia’s GDP will post real growth in the range of 2.0% to 3.0% this year, the press release says.