Pauel nikad "oštrije": "Ne mogu isključiti mogućnost dva uzastopna povećanja kamata"
Predsedavajući Federalnih rezervi Džerom Pauel oštro je govorio o inflaciji u sredu, rekavši na forumu da očekuje višestruko povećanje kamatnih stopa i to verovatno agresivnim tempom.
„Verujemo da dolazi još ograničenja“, rekao je Pauel tokom sesije o monetarnoj politici u Sintri u Portugalu. „Ono što ga zaista pokreće... je veoma snažno tržište rada.“
Komentari su ponovili stav koji su zauzele Pauelove kolege na sastanku u junu, tokom kojeg su ukazali na verovatnoću povećanja za još pola procenta do kraja 2023.
Uz pretpostavku četvrtine poena po sastanku, to bi značilo još dva skoka. Prethodni Pauelovi komentari ukazivali su na mogućnost da porasti dolaze na alternativnim sastancima, iako je u sredu rekao da to možda neće biti slučaj u zavisnosti od toga kako podaci dolaze.
Fed je povećavao kamatne stope na svakom sastanku od marta 2022. godine, u rasponu koji je uključivao četiri uzastopna poteza od tri četvrtine poena, pre nego što je napravio pauzu u junu.
Tržišta su pretrpela skroman udarac dok je Pauel govorio, sa industrijskim prosekom Dau Džonsa sa više od 120 poena.
Centralno za trenutna razmišljanja Fed-a je uverenje da 10 uzastopnih povećanja kamatnih stopa nisu imalo vremena da prođu kroz ekonomiju. Stoga, zvaničnici ne mogu biti sigurni da li politika ispunjava „dovoljno restriktivni“ standard da inflaciju svede na cilj Fed-a od 2 ODSTO.
Većina ekonomista smatra da će povećanje kamatne stope na kraju povući SAD u bar plitku recesiju.
„Postoji značajna mogućnost da će doći do pada“, rekao je Pauel, dodajući da to nije „najverovatniji slučaj, ali je svakako moguć“.
Upitan o bankarskim stresovima, Pauel je rekao da su pitanja u martu koja su dovela do zatvaranja banke Silicijumske doline i dve druge institucije uticala na ovo razmišljanje na poslednjem sastanku.
Pauel je naveo da Fed mora imati na umu da bi moglo biti nekih problema sa dostupnošću kredita. Nedavna istraživanja su pokazala opšte pooštravanje standarda i pad potražnje za kreditima u SAD.
„Dostupnost bankarskih kredita i kredit mogu se malo smanjiti sa malim zakašnjenjem. Zato pažljivo pratimo da li se to zaista pojavljuje“, rekao je on.
Pauelove kolege centralni bankari na forumu su takođe snažno govorili o potrebi da se kontroliše inflacija.
Predsednica ECB Kristin Lagard rekla je da oseća da „još uvek imamo teren za pokrivanje“ i da misli da ćemo „verovatno ponovo krenuti u julu“. Guverner Banke Japana Kazuo Ueda rekao je da bi njegova institucija mogla da pooštri svoju ultra labavu politiku ako inflacija ne popusti, dok je guverner Banke Engleske Endru Bejli naglasio važnost obaranja cena i rekao da ne bi razmišljao o podizanju inflacije od 2 odsto cilj.
„Biće potrebno neko vreme. Pokazalo se da je inflacija upornija nego što smo očekivali, a ne manje“, rekao je Pauel. „Naravno, ako dođe taj dan kada se to preokrene, to će biti sjajno. Ali mi to ne očekujemo“.
IMF: Successful Completion of First Review of Serbia’s Economic Program, Results Better Than Expect
On June 28, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made a decision on successful completion of the first review of the results of the economic program of the Republic of Serbia, supported by the stand-by arrangement (SBA), and concluded regular consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement that were held with our country, according to the website of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
In making the decision, it was noted that the Republic of Serbia is successfully implementing the agreed economic program, it is added. All the criteria based on which the program results are monitored have been met. The achieved balance of payments and fiscal results outperformed the expectations, and the implementation of the structural reform agenda is advancing well.
In the current global conditions, it is expected that, with the continued implementation of a cautious monetary policy, y-o-y inflation will decline to around 8% by the end of the year and return within the NBS’s target tolerance band in 2024, it is added. Working in the same direction as the NBS’s measures will be the global tightening of financial conditions, a better than the last year’s agricultural season, the waning of the negative effects of supply-side shocks and the decline in primary commodity prices.
Consistent with all this, it is added, medium-term inflation expectations of the financial sector remained anchored. Fiscal policy is expected to stay relatively tight in 2023 as well, despite the additional measures in mid-2023. The projected fiscal deficit, which is not expected to exceed 3% of GDP in 2023, will support disinflation and further public debt reduction.
SIMEST Office Opens in Belgrade – Planning to Support Italian Companies in Expanding Business in Se
The ambassador of Italy to Serbia, Luca Gori, took part today, together with the chairman of SIMEST, Pasquale Salzano, and the CEO and General Director of SIMEST, Regina Corradini D’Arienzo, in the ceremony of the opening of the SIMEST office in Belgrade, the first foreign office of SIMEST, announced the Embassy of Italy.
At the event, SIMEST’s strategy for supporting Italian investments in Serbia and the Western Balkans was presented. EUR 200 million has been set aside for this activity, for small and medium enterprises which intend to internationalize their production activities in the Balkans region.
– The opening of the SIMEST office in Belgrade is a concrete continuation of the Business-Science Forum held last March and the implementation of what minister Tajani announced at the time. We are convinced that the arrival of the new actor, Italy, to Belgrade will be an additional incentive to our economic partnership with Serbia, also thanks to the activation of financial instruments to the end of the internationalization of our companies – said ambassador Gori.
SIMEST is an Italian financial institution which supports Italian companies in the process of internationalization. It is a member of the EDFI network – European Development Finance Institutions.
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